Philippines Calls for Separate Code of Conduct With Vietnam, Malaysia

Facts

• Philippine Pres. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said Monday that his country has approached other ASEAN members with whom they have territorial disputes, namely Malaysia and Vietnam, to formulate a separate code of conduct in the South China Sea, amid mounting tensions with the PRC.¹
• On his way home from an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in the US, where he met China's Xi Jinping, Marcos further claimed during his speech in Hawaii that Beijing has shown interest in atolls and shoals 'closer and closer' to the Philippine coast.²
• This comes less than a fortnight after a fleet of Chinese ships encircled a group of Philippine vessels heading for a naval outpost on the contested Second Thomas Shoal in a resupply mission. Unlike the Oct. 22 incident, no collision was reported in these latest encounters.³
• Though ASEAN and China have sought to establish a code of conduct for the South China Sea for two decades, negotiations have stalled over the scope and legal status of the document. Beijing claims sovereignty over nearly the entire region, even refusing to recognize a 2016 international arbitration ruling.⁴
• A spokesperson for the Chinese foreign ministry warned, however, that agreements would be 'null and void' if they are considered to have departed from the Declaration of the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea framework or its spirit.⁵
• Manilla and Washington kicked off three-day joint air and sea patrols in the disputed waters for the first time in seven years on Tuesday to counter China. Last month, US Pres. Joe Biden asserted that any attack on a Philippine aircraft, vessel or armed forces would trigger the mutual defense treaty.⁶

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²The Manila Times, ³Kyodo News+, ⁴Benar News, ⁵CNN and ⁶FT.

Narratives

• Anti-China narrative, as provided by The National Interest. The Philippines must strengthen military and economic ties with both the US and regional neighbors. These military tensions, exemplified by the standoff at the Second Thomas Shoal, highlight the need for Washington to fulfill its defense commitments under the US-Philippines treaty. With China becoming Philippines' main trade partner, the US must also enhance free trade to maintain its strategic position, helping Manila and its Western allies to safeguard national security throughout the South China Sea and maintain a balance of power in the region.
• Pro-China narrative, as provided by Global Times. The Philippines has built quite an extravagant force of biased media outlets in its attempt to paint China as a vicious predator in the region. Backed by multiple Western outlets, Manila has fabricated stories ranging from Chinese Coast Guard ships chasing down fishermen to Chinese fishermen digging up coral reefs. Actually, it's the Philippines that has encroached on China — proving this to be an incremental raising of tensions to garner anti-China support among regional neighbors.

Predictions