Philippine Pres. Marcos Jr. in DC for Biden Meetings

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Facts

  • Philippine Pres. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is set to meet with US Pres. Joe Biden this week as part of a multi-day visit to Washington, DC as tensions grow with Beijing.1
  • The White House has declared that the talks, which follow last week's joint Balikatan drills — the largest ever staged — will focus on the "ironclad" US commitment to regional defense and shared efforts to "uphold international law" as well as to promote a "free and open Indo-Pacific."2
  • Biden and Marcos Jr. are expected to announce new defense agreements and discuss the new sites where US troops could be stationed in addition to five pre-existing bases used for training and pre-positioning equipment.3
  • The meeting will reportedly also see the announcement of three C-130 aircraft and patrol vessels being transferred to the Philippines, as well as a trade mission to the Philippines and $3B in public and private financing to bolster infrastructure for critical minerals.4
  • Chinese assertiveness over the South China Sea, parts of which are also claimed by the Philippines, has increased Manila's wariness about the PRC and drawn the Philippines closer to the US, which sees the country as a strategic asset to counter a potential invasion of Taiwan.5
  • Marcos Jr. is the son of the late Philippine dictator Ferdinand E. Marcos, whose 20-year rule of the nation saw $10B embezzled from public funds and severe political repression, prompting criticism over "uncritical engagement" with the Marcos family. In 1995, a Hawaii court-ordered restitution of nearly $2B to victims of his regime, which has largely gone unpaid.3

Sources: 1CNN (a), 2Al Jazeera, 3Washington Post, 4CNN (b), and 5Reuters.

Narratives

  • Anti-China narrative, as provided by CNBC. The strong bilateral commitment between the Philippines and the US is being renewed as a bulwark against unwarranted PRC aggression. China's intimidation of the Philippines and flagrant violations of international law are not going unnoticed, and the relationship between the two nations is stronger than ever. An expanded relationship with America would help preserve Philippine sovereignty and the stability of the Pacific region against China's baseless claims in the South China Sea and bolster their economy through American investment.
  • Pro-China narrative, as provided by Global Times. US meddling in the Pacific increases the risk of destabilization in the region as Marcos Jr. increases American presence in the country despite strong domestic opposition to their presence. The increased military ties are a clear provocation against China, and risk pushing the territorial disagreements in the South China Sea to crisis levels by compromising ties with their largest trading partner. The Philippines must think long and hard about their interests before allowing themselves to become a pawn of the US.

Predictions