Pentagon Report: $1B in Ukraine Military Aid at 'Risk of Theft'

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Facts

• The US Department of Defense (DoD) reported Thursday that a little over $1B worth of weapons sent to Ukraine are 'delinquent,' citing 'an inability to maintain complete accountability.' This means that future aid shipments to Kyiv will 'be difficult as the inventory continues to change,' according to the report. Shipments have included equipment ranging from anti-tank, surface-to-air missiles, drones, medium-range missiles, and night vision devices.¹
• US officials have reportedly intimated that the Biden administration was willing to lose track of some weapons so long as others made it to the right end users. Republicans are still blocking a White House-proposed $106B military aid package for both Israel and Ukraine; Washington has sent around $44.2B to Ukraine since the war began.¹
• This comes amid Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy's meeting Thursday with Estonian Pres. Alar Karis, where he rejected the idea of a ceasefire, claiming it would allow Moscow to rearm itself. Russia has reportedly discussed purchasing missiles from Iran as well as 1M rounds of ammunition from North Korea. Karis said Estonia would spend '0.25% of [its] defence budget during 2024-2027' on supporting Ukraine.²
• Before stopping in Estonia, Zelenskyy met with Lithuanian Pres. Gitanas Nauseda, with whom he said he would talk about 'cooperation on electronic warfare and drones.' Nauseda, meanwhile, said the pair would also discuss Ukraine's 'integration into the EU and NATO.' Following 500 recent Russian missile and drone attacks, Zelenskyy said Ukraine needs 'modern air defense systems,' assets which he said Kyiv is 'sorely lacking.'³
• Meanwhile, Swedish defense officials faced controversy over remarks about a possible future war in the context of Sweden's NATO ascension and Russia's aggression. In Finland, the government announced Thursday that it will keep its borders with Russia closed until Feb. 11, accusing Russia of continuing its 'hybrid influence activities' by sending migrants across the border.⁴
• On the battlefield, the General Staff of the Ukrainian military reported '73 combat clashes' between Russia and Ukraine in the last day including 'four missile attacks,' '48 airstrikes,' '36 rocket salvos,' and 'casualties among the civilian population.' The attacks reportedly targeted multiple settlements in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk regions.⁵

Sources: ¹Forbes, ²Guardian, ³CNN, ⁴CNBC and ⁵UKRINFORM.

Narratives

• Anti-Russia narrative, as provided by CNN. While it's true that Russia has been resilient in the face of global sanctions, the West has still been able to freeze hundreds of billions of dollars worth of assets, a percentage of which will go to Kyiv. The latest of these valuable assets is the Russian diamond trade, which totals $4.4B globally and $1.6B in the EU. Once Europe acquires these assets, it will be able to offer Ukraine the funding it needs to arm new waves of conscripts and push Moscow back.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by RT International. Zelenkyy's own advisors are now against both lowering the age of conscription and continuing the war more generally. As the world has known for a while now, Western powers have blocked Kyiv from achieving peace since their purposely failed Minsk agreements a decade ago through the failed peace negotiations in Istanbul at the start of this war. Now that Ukraine is being called out even by the Pentagon for misappropriation of military assets, momentum is increasingly on the Kremlin's side.

Predictions