Pentagon Overestimate Leads to $6.2B Surplus for Ukraine Arms

Facts

• On Tuesday, the US Dept. of Defense said it overestimated weapons shipments to Ukraine by $6.2B over the past two years — approximately double the size of the last estimate — resulting in a surplus of available funds for future arms deliveries.¹
• A previously disclosed accounting showed the Pentagon overestimated the value of weapons sent to Ukraine by at least $3B because of inconsistencies in how weapons were valued. Officials often used the cost to replace a weapon, rather than using its current valuation in accounting terms.²
• Sending Ukraine used military gear, which is more efficient than waiting for new supplies, also contributed to the discrepancy.²
• Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Singh said the $6.2B figure is a combination of an error of $3.6B this fiscal year and a $2.6B error from the previous fiscal year.³
• Based on previous estimates, the Pentagon had spent more than $40B in military aid for Ukraine, but now it says it has provided less than $34B in aid.⁴

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²Associated Press, ³The Hill, and ⁴Daily Mail.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Washington Post. The Pentagon’s discovery of its miscalculation comes at just the right time, as Ukraine is ramping up its counteroffensive, and the money appropriated by Congress was reportedly running low. Luckily, the US hadn’t been rationing its support before discovering the valuation errors, and now the US can continue to provide its full-throated support to Ukraine.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Daily Wire. The timing of this discovery is a little too perfect, as Republicans and the American public are growing more skeptical about spending billions to help Ukraine while there are so many issues to address at home. If this is a way for the Biden administration to get around Congress to support an unpopular war, the Executive Branch should be held to account.

Predictions