Pentagon Investigating Ukraine War Plans Leak

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Facts

  • Classified documents detailing American and NATO plans to build up Ukraine's military ahead of a spring counteroffensive were this week leaked on social media. The Pentagon was reportedly investigating the matter while Biden officials told the New York Times they were working to get the documents removed from social media platforms, though had not yet succeeded.1
  • Sarcastically commenting on his own platform, Twitter owner Elon Musk seemed to brush off attempts to censor the leaked documents. "Yeah, you can totally delete things from the Internet," he said, continuing: "That works perfectly and doesn’t draw attention to whatever you were trying to hide at all."2
  • The leaked documents, which were dated March 1, outlined estimates of troop deployments across the front lines as well as expectations of weapons deliveries to Ukraine from the US and other NATO countries and training schedules for Ukrainian forces. One document also estimates the number of troops killed in action, with Russian losses ranging between 16-17.5K while Ukrainian losses have possibly reached as many as 71.5K, a ratio of roughly one to four.2
  • Unnamed military analysts cited by the New York Times said the documents appear to have been modified as they overestimate Ukrainian losses while underplaying Russia's, alleging this could be a disinformation effort by Moscow. However, this has not been confirmed. The Times concedes the leaks nonetheless contain valuable information, stating: "To the trained eye of a Russian war planner, field general or intelligence analyst ... the documents no doubt offer many tantalising clues and insights."1
  • Meanwhile, in its latest intelligence briefing, Britain's defense ministry confirmed previously reported Russian gains in the Donetsk city of Bakhmut. It said Russia's army has, "highly likely advanced into [Bakhmut's] town center, and has seized the west bank of the Bakhmutka River," adding that Ukraine’s "key supply route to the west of the town is likely severely threatened."3
  • Serhiy Cherevatyi, a spokesman for Ukraine's Eastern Military Command, told Reuters on Friday: "The situation is difficult, the enemy is concentrating maximum efforts to capture Bakhmut. However it is suffering serious losses and not reaching strategic success."4

Sources: 1Ukrainska Pravda, 2Grayzone, 3Evening Standard, and 4Al Arabiya English.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by New York Times. The leaked documents overestimate Ukrainian losses while underestimating those of Russia. This indicates that they were likely manipulated by the Kremlin before their release in order to help propagate the Kremlin's disinformation aims.
  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Grayzone. If the documents were even partially faked, they would not be fooling anyone at the US Dept. of Defense, which is the owner of the original files. Other possibilities include that the files were in fact released by the US to misdirect Russia ahead of Ukraine's coming counteroffensive or that the documents are 100% authentic.

Predictions