Panama: Darien Gap Crossings Down 35% in 2024

Facts

• Recent data indicates that the number of migrants crossing the Darien Gap has decreased by 35% from January to Sept. 25 in comparison to the same period last year.^[1]
• The first nine months of 2024 saw nearly 260K migrants enter Panama via Darien, according to Panama's National Border Service. President José Raul Mulino has blocked jungle transit routes and increased deportations with US assistance since entering office on July 1.^[2]
• The joint US-Panama agreement has so far seen 11 deportation flights for 433 migrants who had crossed the Darien Gap since August. Each flight is reported to cost approximately $900K, with the US pledging $6M in funds for repatriations.^[3]
• The current number should be compared to last year's total of 520K migrants, predominantly from Venezuela. Darien Gap crossings dropped by 34% in the first month after Mulino entered office and decreased by a further 19% the month after.^[4]
• Earlier this month, Panama's Public Security Minister Frank Abrego estimated that 320K migrants would cross the Darien jungle by the year's end. The estimate indicates approximately 200K fewer crossings compared to 2023.^[5]

Sources: ^[1]Voice of America, ^[2]Reuters, ^[3]Latintimes, ^[4]Devdiscourse and ^[5]Barrons.

Narratives

• Democratic narrative, as provided by Barrons. This is evidence of the success of Joe Biden and Kamala Harris' plan to reduce the number of illegal migrants crossing the US-Mexico border via collaboration with Mexico and other Central American countries. Biden has banned asylum for illegal migrants who crossed the border and has fulfilled his promise to decrease the flow of illegal migrants passing through Panama's Darien Gap. Biden is committed to ending this illegal activity.
• Republican narrative, as provided by Homeland. Despite these numbers — and despite a Biden promise to prevent the flow of a record number of illegal migrants heading toward the US-Mexican border — the US continues to experience a catastrophic border crisis. The Biden administration is responsible for border security, law enforcement, and ensuring the safety of Americans. Unfortunately for them, history will remember them for their complete failure.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Guardian. At first, this policy may seem like a good idea. Yet, it is doomed to fail and force vulnerable people further into the hands of human trafficking gangs. Desperate migrants flee either poverty or persecution, so they are already willing to take significant risks on their journey to the US border. Blocking this route will only drive them further underground and possibly taking more dangerous routes.