Pakistan: Coalition Government Selects Shehbaz Sharif as PM

Facts

  • The Pakistani political parties that received the second and third most votes in the recent national election have agreed to form a coalition to elect the next prime minister. Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) won 75 out of 266 [directly elected] seats, with Bilawal Bhutto Zardari's Pakistan People's Party (PPP) taking 54.1
  • The coalition, which will also incorporate the MQM-P, PML-Q, IPP, and BAP parties, has garnered 152 seats. After adding the reserved 60 seats for women and 10 for minorities, the coalition will hold far more than the 169 required for a simple majority.2
  • Independents backed by former PM Imran Khan's PTI party won the most voters and garnered 92 seats, but the PTI was banned from this election and its candidates were forced to run individually.3
  • After the ballots were counted — which took two days rather than the typical several hours — over 100 independents who lost said they were going to appeal, alleging their races were rigged.3
  • Nawaz's own district election has been a focal point surrounding election rigging claims. According to a vote tally shared by his party on social media, Nawaz received more votes than there are voters in the district, with the 14 independents in that race receiving zero votes.3
  • Meanwhile, Nawaz Sharif said he would nominate his brother Shehbaz as the next Prime Minister. While Zardari said his PPP party would help select the next government, he emphasized that its members would not take up positions in the cabinet.1

Sources: 1BBC News, 2The Times of India and 3NPR Online News.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by Pakistan Today. Although the PML-N will take control of the incoming government, its power will be less than it hoped. PPP has opted to not fill any cabinet posts and will instead remain an opposition party capable of ousting Sharif should he continue his brother's dreadful economic policies. The PML-N's relatively insignificant majority shows that the people are leaning toward a new leading party — possibly the PPP — that may usher in a new era of stability in the long term.
  • Narrative B, as provided by DAWN. Despite voter turnout overwhelming this rigged election, enough roadblocks were put in place to keep the PTI candidates from forming a government. First, the PTI was legally banned from existence. Then, several districts saw mysterious loads of ballots emerge overnight to ensure the Khan-backed independents didn't win more seats than their already historic amount. While the West makes nominal statements about ensuring the election was fair, Pakistan seems to be headed down a path of civil conflict.

Predictions