Northern Ireland: DUP Agrees Deal to Restore Power-Sharing

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Facts

  • After nearly two years without devolved governance, Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson on Monday revealed that an agreement has been reached to restore Northern Ireland's (NI) Assembly at Stormont.1
  • In a statement on Monday evening, Donaldson commented that, following 'binding commitments' between the DUP and the UK Government concerning legislative changes to the Northern Ireland Protocol, the party would allow the 'restoration of the locally elected institutions' for the first time since Feb. 2022.2
  • While stating that full details of new measures were to be released in 'due course,' the DUP leader continued that new agreements would 'restore' NI within the UK internal market, removing 'checks for goods moving within the UK' as well as ending NI 'automatically following future EU laws.'2
  • Northern Ireland Secretary Chris Heaton-Harris has stated that the agreement is a 'significant step,' while confirming that the UK Government would 'stick to' the 'binding commitments' made during negotiations concerning the Windsor Framework.3
  • NI's model of 'consociationalism' governance requires the sharing of power between Unionists and Nationalists within Stormont's (parliament's) executive. Following the DUP's withdrawal in Feb. 2022, the party saw itself replaced by Nationalists Sinn Féin as the region's largest party three months later.4
  • The UK and EU agreed to the Northern Ireland Protocol following Brexit and it took effect in Jan. 2021, necessitating checks on goods between Britain and NI which were intended to ultimately reach the Republic of Ireland (ROI) — an EU member. Following DUP protests, the Windsor Framework was implemented in Oct. 2023 — separating 'green lane' goods remaining in NI from 'red lane' goods intended to enter ROI.5

Sources: 1BBC News (a), 2DUP, 3GOV.UK, 4Shout Out UK and 5BBC News (b).

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by FactCheckNI. Polling data shows that, regardless of ideology, restoring the integrity of Stormont and addressing the influx of public sector crises continues to be the central priority of Northern Ireland. The people of NI are strongly opposed to the political games that have left them leaderless for nearly two years and, despite dissatisfaction over the Windsor Framework, opinion is clear that no point of policy contention should supersede NI's democratic mandate and the protection of the region's right to self-determination.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Belfast News Letter. With the details of the DUP's agreement yet to be unveiled, there's little hope that two years of protest have resulted in the legislative amendments that Unionists continue to demand. The DUP has likely failed to enact the changes necessary for NI's future but has conceded defeat. NI is once again destined to enter a fragile power-sharing executive which history shows us is inevitably and inherently unsustainable.

Predictions