North Korea Warns Seoul Over Military Exercises

Facts

• Following three consecutive days of artillery bombardment of the border region, Kim Yo Jong, the sister of North Korea's leader Kim Jong Un, threatened South Korea with a military attack, should the South provoke Pyongyang in any way.¹
• The recent rise in tensions on the Korean peninsula follows a combined combat artillery drill by the South Korean Army's mechanized infantry brigade and the US Army's Stryker brigade over the new year close to a contested border area.²
• The Joint Chiefs of Staff of South Korea reported on Friday that North Korea had fired more than 200 artillery rounds along its sea border with the North, marking the first maritime artillery exercise in more than a year. Seoul called it 'an act of provocation that threatens peace and heightens tensions on the Korean Peninsula.'³
• The South claimed on Saturday that the North's shells fell inside a mutually agreed-upon buffer zone, though the North denies this. According to Kim Yo Jung, they were testing the South's detection capabilities by sending off blasting powder, which was perceived by Seoul as artillery fire.⁴
• The North also claims that the US and its Allies have brought the area dangerously close to 'an inferno of nuclear war' through the recent deployment of additional forces, such as heavy bombers, aircraft carriers, and a nuclear missile submarine, prompting Pyongyang to ramp up its production of missile launchers.²
• Although there were no reports of shells crossing the maritime border, the drills on both the North and South sides prompted warnings for residents of the South Korean border islands to go to bomb shelters for cover.¹

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²Voice of America, ³Associated Press and ⁴English.

Narratives

• Anti-North Korea Narrative, as provided by The Messenger. As much as North Korea wishes to flex its military potential and threaten war with bombastic rhetoric, it would be best for Pyongyang not to push this too far. Its current rate of military drills will be near-impossible to sustain, and the North is well known to suffer extreme economic hardship. Dangerous propaganda and military activity are merely a mask for a fragile and vulnerable nation.
• Pro-North Korea narrative, as provided by KCNA Watch. With its increasing provocations, Washington and Seoul are risking nuclear war by holding multiple military exercises along the North Korean border and in the broader region. By deploying aircraft carriers, nuclear submarines, and strategic heavy bombers, the US is posing a threat, not to North Korea, but to regional peace and stability. Pyongyang has every right to counter these provocations by expanding its defensive military capabilities.

Predictions