North Korea Fires Suspected Intercontinental Ballistic Missile

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Facts

  • On Thursday, North Korea fired a presumed intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that malfunctioned in mid-flight, forcing the Japanese government to issue evacuation alerts in the northern and central regions of the country.
  • Thursday's launch came a day after Pyongyang fired more than 20 missiles, the most on a single day. It was also the first time one of their missiles landed in the disputed maritime zone, called the Northern Limit Line (NLL), which prompted Seoul to respond with warplanes firing three air-to-ground missiles.
  • Tensions in the region are escalating amid fears North Korea is preparing its first nuclear test in five years. The recent missile tests come right after Pyongyang demanded that the US and South end their large-scale military exercises, saying it could no longer tolerate the alleged military provocation.
  • North Korea fired more missiles within the last 24 hours than it had previously since 2017 — when it last conducted a nuclear test. According to a nuclear weapons expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: "The missile launches today and yesterday indicate the intensity with which North Korea would look to use missile launches in an actual conflict."
  • South Korean government sources originally said they suspected today's ICBM launch was a Hwasong-17 — which was proclaimed by the North as a success — but later suggested it was the less advanced Hwasong-15.
  • Officials from the South said the ICBM succeeded in separating at the second stage, then failed, falling into the ocean between the Korean Peninsula and Japan. The Hwasong-17 could put the entire US mainland in range of a North Korean nuclear warhead, but it's unclear if it could deliver a nuclear payload with accuracy.

Sources: Al Jazeera, BBC News, Reuters, FT, New York Times, and CNN.

Narratives

  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by AntiWar. When Washington was truly committed to de-escalating tensions with North Korea, Pyongyang responded positively, halting missile tests and demolishing several testing sites. This changed when the US began to increase its military presence in the Asia-Pacific, posing an existential threat to the DPRK. Carrying out provocative drills will only escalate tensions.
  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided DW. Seoul and Washington have demonstrated goodwill toward Pyongyang in the hopes of creating an environment conducive to disarmament talks for four years. However, as North Korea has failed to make good on its promises — resuming its missile tests and further developing its nuclear program — a posture shift is necessary for the South and its allies to prepare for an attack from the North.

Predictions