NOAA: El Niño is Back and Expected to Ignite Severe Weather

Facts

• The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced Thursday that El Niño, a natural climate system that emerges as the Pacific Ocean experiences 'warmer-than-average' surface temperatures, is expected to return and strengthen in the coming months.¹
• Climate scientists say this year's El Niño is on track to break global temperature records set when the weather pattern hit in 2016, which triggered deadly heat and precipitation and was linked to rainforest losses, coral bleaching, and a rise in diseases such as cholera and dengue that year.²
• According to the head of NOAA’s El Niño/La Niña forecast office, it formed a month or two earlier than most El Niños do, which 'gives it room to grow,' adding that there’s a 56% chance it will be considered strong and a 25% chance it reaches supersized levels.³
• El Niño usually brings cold, wet winters to the southern US, with lots of rain for the Southwest and California, and a warm, dry winter for the Pacific Northwest, Ohio Valley, northern Rockies, and parts of the Midwest. El Niño's counterpart, La Niña, brings colder temperatures and has predominated for the last three years.⁴
• To predict El Niño, which the NOAA gives an 84% chance of being at least moderately strong this year, scientists look at sea surface temperatures and wind patterns along the equator in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean. In a key zone of the tropical Pacific, surface waters were 0.8°C (1.4°F) warmer than usual in May.²
• While some of its greatest effects will be felt by a hotter and drier Indonesia and adjacent parts of Asia, northeast African countries will receive much-needed rainfall after enduring droughts for several years due to La Niña events. It's also likely to have a growing negative impact on the global economy, with cost estimates in the trillions of dollars.³

Sources: ¹CBS, ²Washington Post, ³Time and ⁴The Hill.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Los Angeles Times. El Niño in-and-of itself is a cause for serious concern in the upcoming year, as it will likely warm the earth by 1.5°C, seen as the climate change tipping point. While one year of warming — caused by a periodic weather pattern — doesn't mean Earth will remain at that temperature, it does give us a glimpse into the climate's future if something isn't done to reverse course. Droughts, crop failure, and severe flooding will still be a part of our lives, but we should work tirelessly to reduce carbon emissions and their apocalyptic consequences.
• Narrative B, as provided by American Spectator. After warning of an impending drought crisis set to hit the US, climate alarmists suspiciously went quiet after California recorded more precipitation than it had in decades, including a 70-year record of snow in the Sierra Mountains. And, instead of updating infrastructure to allocate this excess water to states like California, Nevada, and Arizona by way of the Colorado River, these water-deficient states are paid billions to reduce water usage. Now that the drought theory is over, it's onto the El Niño headlines to keep the climate change industry going.