NKorea Tests Ballistic Missiles as Blinken Visits Seoul

Facts

• North Korea reportedly fired three short-range ballistic missiles Monday, the first of which traveled 185 miles (297 km) before landing in the Sea of Japan. South Korea claimed the weapons appeared to be KN-24 missiles, which weigh 1.1K pounds and have a 250-mile (402 km) range.¹
• Tokyo reported that all three missiles landed off North Korea's east coast but outside of Japan's exclusive economic zone. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said that Pyongyang's latest launch follows its solid-fueled intermediate-range ballistic missile test in January.²
• The launches come after the joint US-South Korea military drills — during which North Korean leader Kim Jong Un led training exercises involving artillery, tanks, and paratroopers — culminated on Thursday.³
• The tests, which reportedly caused no injuries or damage, also coincided with the arrival of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in South Korea to attend the third Summit for Democracy being held from March 18 to 20.⁴
• According to Japan's foreign ministry, the US, South Korea, and Japan have reaffirmed their cooperation following the North's missile launches.⁵
• North Korea's increase in military drills follows Kim's calling the South his 'primary enemy' and to 'completely occupying, subjugating and reclaiming' the South into the country's Constitution.²

Sources: ¹The Telegraph, ²The Japan Times, ³FOX News, ⁴Dw.Com and ⁵Kyodo News+.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Voice of America. Democratic allies of Eastern Asia have conducted non-provocative military drills in the region due to the North's decision to physically threaten its southern neighbor and Japan. Instead of engaging in diplomacy — an example of which is the current Democracy Summit in Seoul — Kim Jong Un has chosen to launch missiles into Japan's backyard. Not only is Kim's rhetoric inflammatory, but his actions are outright life-threatening.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Lowy Institute. Those who believe Kim Jong Un wants war have excluded key details from their analyses. First, the language change in Pyongyang's Constitution matters little, given that the Kim regime continued its military programs before the change. Kim has also explicitly stated that he won't start a war but only respond to outside aggression. North Korea's recent escalation isn't erratic, as some would claim, but rather comes in response to the US and Soeul speaking of regime change.

Predictions