NKorea Resumes Missile Launches as US, SKorea Strengthen Ties

Facts

• North Korea reportedly fired off an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) on Monday into the waters off Japan, near the island of Hokkaido, marking its second missile launch over the past two days.¹
• South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff estimates that it traveled some 1K km (621 miles) before crashing into the East Sea, with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida saying, based on the flight trajectory, that the launch appeared to be an ICBM with an estimated 14K km (9.3K miles) range.²
• South Korea signaled that the launch featured a solid-fueled weapon, a likely reference to the North's Hwasong-18 ICBM whose built-in solid propellants make it more difficult to detect than liquid-fueled weapons. Kim Jong Un has previously called the Hwasong-18 his country's most powerful weapon within Pyongyang's nuclear forces.³
• Despite firing its first ICBM since July on Monday, Pyongyang has launched a record number of weapons tests in 2023, including a short-range missile that flew about 570 km (354 miles) before falling into the waters between the Korean Peninsula and Japan on Sunday.⁴
• This comes as North Korea looks to ramp up its arsenal and military capabilities in the face of a growing alliance between the US and South Korea, whose officials met on Friday in Washington to discuss ways to respond to a potential nuclear threat from the North — agreeing to war-game the use of nuclear weapons in military drills next summer.⁵
• Following the launch of North Korea's first military reconnaissance satellite into space last month, the US and South Korea have boosted the intensity of their joint military drills. Pyongyang has been banned from conducting ballistic missile launches under a related UN Security Council resolution.⁶

Sources: ¹FOX News, ²ABC News, ³Associated Press, ⁴Al Jazeera, ⁵BBC News, and ⁶CNBC.

Narratives

• Pro-North Korea narrative, provided by KCNA. Though Washington and its proxies in the Korean Peninsula have carried out threatening military exercises on North Korea's doorstep in alleged efforts to deter Pyongyang, they are quick to claim that any measures to develop any sort of defense weaponry from the North are a provocation. Pyongyang will continue its sovereign right to self-defense and will not be bullied by warmongering enemies.
• Anti-North Korea Narrative, provided by Newsweek. North Korea continues to stoke global tensions and work towards igniting a war in the Pacific, as it continually defies UN mandates and actively seeks to create a missile that can reach the US. Led by its autocratic and dangerous leader, North Korea cannot be dismissed, and the US must ramp up its exercises with its allies to deter a nuclear threat. Democracies around the world must be vigilant about deterring nuclear action.
• Nerd narrative, as provided by Metaculus. There's a 30% chance that North Korea will possess enough fissile material to make at least 100 warheads before 2024, according to the Metaculus prediction community.