NKorea Fires Artillery Barrage Toward Border Islands in the South

Facts

• North Korea fired more than 200 artillery shells landing near the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong Friday morning between 9:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. (local time) according to Seoul's Joint Chief of Staff.¹
• Within their statement, South Korea confirmed that no personnel were harmed while accusing the North of a 'provocative act.'²
• Residents of Yeonpyeong and Baengnyeong islands were told to go to bomb shelters and evacuate, respectively. The North has stated that the artillery was not a threat to the islands.³
• In November 2023, North Korea withdrew from all measures of a previous five-year military de-escalation agreement in response to the South's partial suspension of the deal — itself a reply to Pyongyang's launch of the Malligyong-1 spy satellite into space.⁴
• The 2018 agreement prohibited aerial surveillance and live-fire exercises within buffer and no-fly zones. South Korea resumed aerial surveillance following Pyongyang's satellite launch, while North Korea's artillery fire and South Korea's maritime drill response took place within the previously agreed upon buffer zones.⁵
• North Korea has claimed its artillery fire to be a 'natural response and countermeasure' to recent South Korean military drills while arguing that the events had no 'indirect impact' on the islands of Baengyeong or Yeonpyeong – where residents were told to consequently evacuate by local authorities.⁶

Sources: ¹BBC News (a), ²CNN, ³Al Jazeera, ⁴BBC News (b), ⁵Associated Press and ⁶Barrons.

Narratives

• Pro-North Korea narrative, as provided by KCNA Watch. South Korea's dangerous behavior will only end in pain for the American proxy state if it continues on its current reckless trajectory. Pyongyang rejects the oppressive regimes of the US, Japan, Seoul, and all others who desperately seek to raise tensions. Unless there is a clear change in direction, these aggressors will see consequences in the new year.
• Anti-North Korea Narrative, as provided by The Messenger. While North Korea wishes to flex its military potential and threaten war with bombastic rhetoric, it's best not for Pyongyang to push this too far. Its current rate of military drills will be near-impossible to sustain, and the North is well known to suffer extreme economic hardship. Dangerous propaganda and military activity are merely a mask for a fragile and vulnerable nation.

Predictions