Niger: Russian Forces Deployed to Airbase Housing US Troops

Facts

• According to CNN, Russian and US troops are operating from the same military base in Niger amid heightened tensions over the Ukraine crisis and the ruling junta's warning that the American forces must leave the country.¹
• However, US officials have stated that the Russian forces' presence doesn't pose an immediate security threat to American soldiers because they have been using a separate hangar at Airbase 101.²
• Niger had been a major partner in the US war against Islamic State and al-Qaeda affiliates in the Sahel until its military takeover last July. In March, Niger's junta ordered Washington to withdraw its almost 1K troops stationed in the country.³
• After designating the military takeover as a coup last October, the US restricted its military support and aid to Niger. Since then, diplomatic efforts to restore relations with Niamey's government have failed.⁴
• Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on Friday at a press conference in Moscow that Russia is 'building ties with various African countries in all areas, including the military.'⁵
• Several Sahel nations are now run by military juntas, who have ditched former ruler France and strengthened ties with Russia to combat Islamist insurgency in the region.⁶

Sources: ¹CNN, ²ABC News, ³Al Jazeera, ⁴Associated Press, ⁵CBS and ⁶BBC News.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Guardian. The recent development at Airbase 101 isn't ideal, but it's manageable. After last year's military takeover in Niger, the US moved some troops from Airbase 101 to Airbase 201 in Agadez to fight Islamic State and al-Qaida affiliates using armed drones. Talks with Niger's military leadership about the threat of Islamic terrorists rising in the Sahel without US military and intelligence backing are still ongoing.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Newsweek. The fact that Russian advisors are at the same military site as US personnel is a major foreign policy failure for Biden and Blinken. We were aware of the Russian presence in Niger a month ago, yet no action was taken. The pressing question is: what will happen to the bases once US forces leave? Russia cannot be allowed to get its claws into the region as a result of Washington's ineptitude.

Predictions