Niger: France Reportedly in Talks for Possible Withdrawal

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Facts

  • On Tuesday, France's ambassador to Mali and Senegal — citing unnamed sources — announced that France and Niger's military are in talks to “partially” withdraw the 1.5K French troops stationed in the West African nation.1
  • French outlet Le Monde reported that neither the number of French soldiers involved nor the timing of their departure has been decided, adding that France has been in communication with regular army officials with whom France has long cooperated as opposed to the coup leaders.2
  • French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu stated that talks were in progress about 'easing movements of French military resources' in Niger, with an anonymous source within the French Defense Ministry saying that French forces had been 'immobilized since anti-terrorist cooperation was suspended' following the military takeover.3
  • According to Le Monde, some French troops could be redeployed to other regional countries, such as neighboring Chad, while others could return to France.2
  • Relations between Niger and France, the country's former colonial power and traditional ally, quickly deteriorated after Paris declared the new military leaders illegitimate, calling for former Pres. Mohamed Bazoum to be reinstated as the country's premier.4
  • Since 2021, there have been several coups in West Africa, including in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Chad, and Sudan. The most recent coup in Niger prompted the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a 15-member bloc to which Niger belonged, to threaten military intervention to oust the country's new military leadership.5

Sources: 1Al Jazeera, 2Reuters, 3France 24, 4Dw.com and 5Washington Post.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by France 24. All parties involved in the current political crisis in Niger favor a diplomatic solution and have urged the coup leaders to reinstate Bazoum and tell their troops to return to their bases. The wave of authoritarian and anti-democratic coups in West Africa could destabilize the region, and a potential withdrawal of French forces would be a serious escalation in this crisis.
  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by RT. Niger is a sovereign state, and if the country's leadership wants a French withdrawal, then that is what must be done. For too long, Western powers have felt as if they have the right to dictate the status quo in Africa and other Global South nations. However, times have changed, and France will continue to lose influence in its former colonies.

Predictions