Niger: ECOWAS 'Ready' to Intervene Militarily if Diplomatic Efforts Fail

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Facts

  • Abdel-Fatau Musah, the commissioner for peace and security at the 15-member ECOWAS [Economic Community of West African States], stated Thursday that regional forces are "ready" to intervene militarily in Niger if diplomatic efforts fail to reinstate deposed President Mohamed Bazoum.1
  • He further said that all member states except those under military rule — Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Mali — as well as Cape Verde stand prepared to join a standby force.2
  • This comes as military chiefs from the bloc gathered in Ghana's capital of Accra to begin a two-day meeting on the ongoing crisis in Niger, following the activation of the force last week to "restore constitutional order" in the country.3
  • While it remains unclear if or when troops would intervene, there has been speculation that Benin, Ivory Coast, Nigeria, and Senegal would contribute soldiers to the force, which could take weeks to months to prepare.4
  • The prospect of intervention has caused domestic political pushback in key countries, with Nigeria's Senate expressing objections and opposition parties in Ghana questioning the legal basis for it.5
  • Meanwhile, the African Union has reportedly rejected a military solution to the situation in Niger but has so far refrained from issuing a joint statement before hearing ECOWAS' decision.6

Sources: 1Reuters, 2Al Jazeera, 3DW, 4VOA, 5The Guardian, and 6North Africa Post.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by The Conversation. A military intervention in Niger would not only be ineffective as support for the junta grows, but could aggravate the crisis in West Africa and the Sahel. A regional war would likely sidetrack anti-terrorism efforts, embolden human traffickers, and provoke a mass influx of refugees — while risking to push Niger closer to Russia and the Wagner Group.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Pulse Ghana. The military takeover in Niger was the last straw in a long string of coups that have recently taken place in ECOWAS countries, so it's time to send troops to topple the junta and deliver a strong deterrence message against coup plotters. If the regional bloc fails to fulfill its duties in trying to appease these authoritarians, then military coups will soon become epidemic in West Africa.

Predictions