Niger Coup Leader Agrees to Talks with ECOWAS Regional Bloc

Facts

• Niger's coup leader, General Abdourahmane Tchiani, has agreed to hold direct talks and resolve a standoff with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), according to a group of Nigerian Islamic scholars Tchiani met with previously.¹
• Niger's Prime Minister, Ali Mahamane Lamine Zeine, confirmed that the General gave the green light for discussions with ECOWAS, adding that the talks will take place in the next few days. The Prime Minister made the announcement after meeting with Nigerian Islamic Scholars led by Sheikh Abdullahi Bala Lau.²
• As ECOWAS explores ways to restore civilian rule in Niger, including possible military intervention following the July 26 ousting of Pres. Mohamed Bazoum (in the seventh coup seen in West and Central Africa in three years), its representatives are planning a visit to Niamey, the capital of Niger.³
• The group's meeting with the general lasted several hours, and Lau said he had told Tchiani that the visit was part of an effort to encourage him and other military leaders behind the coup to resolve their differences peacefully rather than through armed conflict.⁴
• Tchiani welcomed the clerics' intervention and said coup leaders were open to exploring diplomacy and peace to resolve the matter. Tchiani stated, however, that ECOWAS leaders had not heard his case before they made an ultimatum to restore Bazoum on August 7, saying the coup was undertaken to starve off an imminent threat to the region.⁴
• On Saturday, the bloc’s parliament said it would ask the president of Nigeria, Bola Tinubu, to permit ECOWAS to go to Niger for negotiations. French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu has said that France fully supports ECOWAS’s decisions regarding Niger, and that he does not expect there to be an armed intervention.¹

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²Nigeriannewsdirectcom, ³Tvpworld, and ⁴The Sun Nigeria.

Narratives

• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by BBC News. Niger has become the latest former French colony in West Africa to see the army seize control. Indeed, since 1990, a striking 78% of coups in sub-Saharan Africa have occurred in Francophone states, as French colonial rule established a political system designed to extract valuable resources while using repressive strategies to retain control. France has not moved away from this corrupt system — people have had enough of the pro-French elites who have ruled at the expense of the African citizens.
• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Vox. The coup d'état in Niger must be ended and President Bazoum reinstated as the legitimate leader of the country. Bazoum was democratically elected in 2021 in Niger's first peaceful transfer of power. The region needs a democratic, stable Niger, meaning the American military base and 1,500 French troops stationed in the country must be maintained. The EU, France, and the US are rightly putting combined pressure on Tchiani to step down and hand over power to President Bazoum.

Predictions