Niger Coup: ECOWAS Activates Stand By Force For Possible Intervention

Facts

• The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on Thursday ordered the activation of its standby force to possibly take action against the military junta that overthrew the country's democratically elected leader in July.¹
• Following an ECOWAS summit in the Nigerian capital Abuja on Thursday, the country's President Bola Tinubu, who chairs the West African regional bloc, said that "no option is taken off the table, including the use of force as a last resort."²
• The regional organization, noting its commitment to a peaceful resolution of the crisis in Niger, also announced plans to impose sanctions, travel bans, and asset freezes on those who prevent the reinstatement of democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum.³
• The extraordinary ECOWAS meeting had been called after the regional bloc gave the coup leaders a one-week deadline, which expired on Sunday, to reinstate the ousted government.⁴
• Following the gathering, US Sec. of State Antony Blinken voiced support for a "peaceful resolution" to the crisis, adding that the US will hold the coup plotters responsible for the safety of President Bazoum, his family, and detained government officials.⁵
• Prior to the emergency summit, attended by nine of the 15 ECOWAS member states, Niger's military leaders reportedly told Western officials that the ousted president would be killed if neighboring countries made any move to intervene militarily to reinstate his government.⁶

Sources: ¹Guardian, ²POLITICO, ³Reuters, ⁴CNN, ⁵IOL, and ⁶Associated Press.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by The Guardian. ECOWAS' mixed messages between diplomacy and military action will do little to resolve the crisis in Niger and restore the democratically elected government. This is bad news for the entire region and the wider global community, as Niger is central to Western development and counterterrorism efforts throughout the Sahel. Given that the junta has rejected international mediation efforts, the Sahel faces a turbulent future, made worse by ECOWAS's loss of credibility.
• Narrative B, as provided by Daily Trust. ECOWAS's efforts to resolve the conflict in Niger resemble a balancing act for which there is no easy solution. ECOWAS needs to intervene to stand up for its values, but that intervention shouldn't be based on military action, given the incalculable consequences of a military conflict for the entire region. While it may not have closed the door to the use of force, the bloc is rightly prioritizing diplomacy and the peaceful resolution of differences.

Predictions