Niger Closes Airspace as ECOWAS Deadline Expires

Facts

• Leaders of a coup in Niger on Sunday announced the closure of the country's airspace after rejecting an ultimatum from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to reinstate ousted Pres. Mohamed Bazoum or risk possible military intervention.¹
• Citing the threat of an alleged "preparation for intervention" by two unnamed Central African states, the country's military junta said the airspace would be "closed for all aircraft until further notice," adding that any violations would be met with an "energetic and immediate response."²
• The 15-nation regional bloc had issued a one-week deadline asking the generals to relinquish power by midnight on Sunday, after Bazoum was detained and overthrown by members of his guard on July 26.³
• A day earlier, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna said the country "supports with firmness and determination the efforts of ECOWAS to defeat this coup attempt," but didn't say whether France would militarily assist an ECOWAS intervention.⁴
• Meanwhile, ECOWAS' political affairs commissioner Abdel-Fatau Musah stated that the bloc would shortly decide when and where to intervene following the seventh coup in West and Central Africa within three years.⁵
• In another development, Salifou Mody — one of the Nigerien coup leaders — reportedly asked the Russian mercenary group Wagner for help during a visit to Mali, as "they will become their guarantee to hold onto power."⁶

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera (a), ²Dw.Com, ³WION, ⁴France 24, ⁵VOA, and ⁶Al Jazeera (b).

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Washington Post. Niger is the last stronghold of democratic pluralism and the rule of law in the Sahel. If Niger follows in the footsteps of Mali and Burkina Faso in being ruled by an autocratic junta, it would further destabilize the entire region and impact the world. Not only could Russia's notorious Wagner mercenaries capitalize on this opportunity, but Islamist extremists will also take advantage of the political instability. ECOWAS and the international community must restore the country's democratically elected government and constitutional order.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Global Research. ECOWAS' deadline has expired, but the bloc of West African states should think twice before using force and making itself a tool of Western, especially French, neocolonial interests in resource-rich Niger. France no longer has the military presence and influence to project sufficient power and intervene effectively. The country faces a geopolitical dilemma as a result, because whether it pushes for a military invasion of Niger or not, Paris faces the inevitable collapse of its neocolonial system in the region.

Predictions