New Zealand Reverses Course on Tobacco Ban

Facts

• New Zealand's government reversed course on its law prohibiting tobacco sales to future generations on Tuesday. The law had been the first of its kind worldwide.¹
• The ban, agreed upon by the previous Prime Minister Jacinda Arden's administration and scheduled to take effect in July, would have barred the sale of tobacco to anybody born after Jan. 1, 2009, but it's now been revoked as part of Prime Minister Christopher Luxon's 100-day plan.²
• Associate Health Minister Casey Costello emphasized the coalition government's commitment to lowering smoking rates through an alternative regulatory approach. Rather than a ban, this approach would emphasize deterring the habitual use of tobacco and harm reduction.³
• The previous legislation was planned to decrease the number of nicotine retailers by approximately 90%, as well as lowering nicotine concentration within remaining tobacco products.⁴
• Clinical trials and modeling research have suggested that the ban would have raised smokers' quit rates while creating obstacles for young people who want to start smoking. Regulations on vaping will be part of a new package of initiatives the coalition government will unveil.¹
• New Zealand's Ministry of Health has advised Costello that reducing the smoking population to 5%, targeted for 2025 under Labour's plan, will now take until at least 2061, and cost the economy a net NZ$11B (~US$4.3B) in healthcare spending and decreased productivity.⁵

Sources: ¹US News & World Report, ²Independent, ³The Daily Star, ⁴Sky News and ⁵NZ Herald.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Reason Foundation. It's good news that New Zealand's government has repealed its intended ban. It is likely that the ban would have disproportionately affected the country's indigenous population. A ban would also provide a major incentive for smugglers to import cigarettes. A better way is to increase efforts to educate cigarette smokers about the possible health benefits of switching to safer alternatives, as well as provide more access to smoking cessation services for the Maori minority.
• Narrative B, as provided by BBC News. The evidence is clear — smoking is a massive driver of death in New Zealand and the Western world. The former government of Jacinda Ardern acknowledged this in her proposed legislation to protect future generations. The new coalition administration has repealed the prohibition and will announce other steps to reduce smoking that won't be as effective. It will be hard to come up with something as effective as a ban.

Predictions