New Poll Shows Trump Leading in 5 Swing States

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Facts

• Former Pres. Donald Trump in a new poll released Monday by The New York Times, Siena College, and The Philadelphia Inquirer holds a lead on Pres. Joe Biden in five of six battleground states.¹
• Among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup against the incumbent, the presumptive Republican nominee leads by seven points in Arizona, 10 points in Georgia, seven points in Michigan, 12 points in Nevada, and three points in Pennsylvania.²
• Biden's only lead is in Wisconsin, where the president's two-point lead is within the survey's margin of error of plus/minus 4.5%.³
• Among a narrower pool of people likely to cast a vote, Trump still leads in five states but he has the advantage in Wisconsin rather than Michigan, where the president leads.⁴
• When the poll factors in independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the result is similar. Kennedy polls around 10% in the six states and draws from each of the other two candidates equally.⁴
• The poll finds that a majority of voters trust Trump over Biden on a number of issues, including the economy, crime, and the war in Gaza, but Biden has more trust on abortion.⁵

Sources: ¹New York Times, ²USA Today, ³Daily Mail, ⁴FOX News and ⁵Forbes.

Narratives

• Republican narrative, as provided by New York Post. Biden's failed economic policies have left Americans from all walks of life in jeopardy, and voters know that there must be a massive overhaul of the system and Trump can deliver it. Even demographics that are typically rock-solid for Democrats — people of color and young people — are facing the reality that four more years of Biden isn't the answer.
• Democratic narrative, as provided by Axios.com. You can't put too much weight into this one poll, especially when there are more than 30 circulating right now showing Biden leading and gaining support. We're six months out from Election Day, and a large chunk of the electorate has not seriously weighed their choices yet. Democrats are leading Senate races in four battleground states, and Biden is doing fine.
• Progressive narrative, as provided by TheHill.com. This poll, and others showing similar results, must be a wake-up call to Democrats to change their tune and do more to reach out to those Trump is picking off. Young people aren't just souring on the president because of the war in Gaza; they're in dire economic straits. There must be more outreach to Black voters, as well, to reinforce how the president is a better choice than Trump.

Predictions