New Poll Shows Trump Leading Biden Among Voters Under 30

Facts

• Former US Pres. Donald Trump is increasing his support among young voters, according to a poll released by Emerson College on Friday, which shows voters under 30 narrowly supporting Trump over Pres. Joe Biden by a margin of 45% to 43%.¹
• Trump’s support among younger demographics marks a dramatic shift from just three years ago, when Biden won roughly 60% of voters under 30 compared to Trump’s 36%. Millennials and Gen Z have overwhelmingly supported Democrats in past elections, but according to an NBC News poll from June, only 9% of voters under 35 “strongly approve” of Biden.²
• The poll also shows Trump’s nationwide support increasing two percentage points to 47% since last month, while Biden held steady at 45%. The economy remains the most important issue for a plurality of voters (35%), while immigration has increased in importance, especially among people in the Northeast.³
• Other polls from this week also show Trump leading Biden, including a CNBC All-America Economic Survey poll and a Bloomberg/Morning Consult poll of seven swing states, which both had Trump up by 4 points.⁴
• Trump remains far ahead of the GOP field with 59% support in the Republican primary. No other candidate cracked double digits, with Nikki Haley (8%), Ron DeSantis (4%), and Mike Pence (3%) all battling to be a distant second. Meanwhile, Biden remains the presumptive Democratic nominee with 70% support in a relatively empty field.¹
• In hypothetical matchups, the Emerson poll showed Trump leading Bernie Sanders 48% to 40% while Biden leads Mitt Romney 40% to 30%. Among young voters, Sanders — who has been quite popular with the group — only leads Trump 45% to 42%.³

Sources: ¹Forbes, ²Washington Examiner, ³Emerson Polling and ⁴The Hill.

Narratives

• Republican narrative, as provided by Daily Caller. Young Americans are finally waking up to the fact that the Democratic party has failed them, and they are flocking to Trump in shocking numbers. Biden clearly lacks the cognitive ability to serve as president, and his policies are making Americans poorer and less safe. Young people, like most other Americans, recognize that the country was doing better under Trump, and the numbers reflect that reality.
• Democratic narrative, as provided by NBC. Despite differing reports from a rogue poll or two, the truth is that Trump and his “MAGA movement” remain extremely unpopular with young people, and he will have a hard time winning them over in the 2024 election. Trump was beaten by wide margins among voters under 30 in previous elections, and that is unlikely to change, as young voters are historically more progressive and diverse than their older counterparts.

Predictions