New Poll Shows Trump Holding Slight Lead Over Biden
0:00/18611× Facts * US Pres. Joe Biden continues to lag behind Donald Trump in opinion polls, as a New York Times and Siena College national survey released on Tuesday showed the former president holding a slim lead over Biden. 1 * Trump is leading Biden 46%-44% among registered voters,
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Facts
- US Pres. Joe Biden continues to lag behind Donald Trump in opinion polls, as a New York Times and Siena College national survey released on Tuesday showed the former president holding a slim lead over Biden. 1
- Trump is leading Biden 46%-44% among registered voters, but Biden maintains a 47%-45% lead among people likely to vote in the 2024 presidential election next November. However, Biden has been bleeding support among younger Americans, who have overwhelmingly supported Democrats in past elections. 2
- Of those polled, 9% remain undecided, but when they were asked to decide whom they would support at the moment, 39% favored Biden — a figure that has declined in several consecutive Times/Siena polls. 3
- Biden’s handling of Israel’s conflict in Gaza has turned off many young voters, with 72% of respondents aged 18-29 disapproving of his administration’s stance. According to an exit poll, Biden won that demographic by 21 points in 2020 and had a 10-point lead in a July poll, but Trump is now winning the younger demographic by six points according to Tuesday’s survey. 4
- Meanwhile, a CNBC poll also published on Tuesday reported that Trump is leading Latino voters by five points. Another core constituency of the Democratic base, Latinos have soured on Biden, who held a 7-point lead among the group just three months ago. Issues such as the economy and border crisis have reportedly weakened his standing. 5
- While Biden is seen as the likely Democratic nominee, some in his party, including former Obama chief strategist David Axelrod, say the president should resign to allow a more popular candidate to run. Meanwhile, former Pres. Trump continues to outpace the Republican field and is forecast to secure the nomination, barring any legal issues. 6
Sources: 1Fox Bangor, 2 Fox News, 3 The Hill, 4 Business Insider, 5 CNBC, and 6 New York Post.
Narratives
- Republican narrative, as provided by Daily Caller. While it's not surprising to see Biden trailing Trump among registered voters, it's still startling to see traditional Democratic blocs like young people and Latinos switching over to Trump in droves. The Democrats spent decades building up support among key demographics, but Biden has thrown away years of inroads with his failed administration. Biden is in deep trouble, and if he can’t even win the under-30 group, he has no chance of winning re-election.
- Democratic narrative, as provided by Eagle Tribune. While the polls don’t look great at the moment, it's far too early to call a victor, and Democrats need to start rallying behind their likely nominee. Biden isn’t perfect, but he inherited a mess that Trump created and has gotten the country on the right track. Ultimately, Trump is the greatest threat to American democracy, and he cannot be allowed back in the White House. Biden won in 2020, and he can still defeat Trump in 2024.
- Nerd narrative, as provided by Metaculus. There's a 47% chance that Donald Trump will win the 2024 US presidential election if he faces Joe Biden, according to the Metaculus prediction community.
