New Poll Shows 10-Point Lead for Trump Over Biden

0:00

/0:00

1×

Facts

• Former Pres. Donald Trump leads Pres. Joe Biden by 10 percentage points in a new Washington Post/ABC poll released Sunday. The large margin for the Republican frontrunner significantly differs from most other public polls¹
• In a hypothetical November 2024 matchup, Trump — the frontrunner for the GOP nomination according to polling — has 51% support to Biden’s 42%. Biden’s job approval rating is 37% overall.²
• Meanwhile, 48% say they approve of the job Trump did while in office, with 49% saying they disapprove. Trump had a 38% approval rating when he left office in January 2021.³
• Biden's handling of the economy has hit the low point of his term at 30%, with 75% of Americans saying they believe the economy is 'not so good' or 'poor.'³
• Shortly after releasing the poll, the Washington Post suggested in a statement that  the difference between its poll and most others — which show the candidates in a 'virtual dead heat' — means this poll is 'probably an outlier.'⁴
• An NBC poll also released over the weekend showed similar results when it came to Biden’s approval rating and feelings about the economy, but it showed Biden and Trump even at 46% support each.⁵

Sources: ¹Washington Post, ²ABC News, ³Daily Mail, ⁴Daily Caller and ⁵NBC.

Narratives

• Democratic narrative, as provided by The Messenger. All signs are pointing toward a close race, so the idea that Biden might wind up losing by double digits is preposterous. Although a close race should be a warning sign to the incumbent president, remember that Biden was underestimated in 2020, and many thought Democrats would get trounced in the 2022 midterms. Throughout his career, Biden has been a triumphant underdog.
• Republican narrative, as provided by PJ Media. The president’s approval rating has been dropping precipitously for months, so the fact that he might be behind Trump by 10 or more points at this stage shouldn't be a surprise. Results of other questions in this poll show that he’s failing as president. One has to wonder if Democrats might look for a different nominee.

Predictions