New Poll Shows Harris Expanding Lead
According to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, Democratic US presidential candidate Kamala Harris is leading her Republican opponent Donald Trump 45%-41%, with a margin of error of 2%....
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Facts
- According to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll, Democratic US presidential candidate Kamala Harris is leading her Republican opponent Donald Trump 45%-41%, with a margin of error of 2%.[1]
- Harris also gained ground among women and Hispanic voters by a margin of 49%- 36%, while Trump was up by 7% among men and White voters. Harris' 52% unfavorability was lower than Trump's 59%, and she led 47%-39% in favorability.[1][2]
- In the swing states of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, and Nevada, Trump was collectively polling ahead 45%-43%. The former president is also up 45%-36% on the economy and 45%-37% on immigration.[1][2]
- Harris has a 47%-31% lead on abortion policy, with 73% of Democrats saying they're more excited to vote in November now that she's the nominee. About 41% of respondents, including 70% of Democrats, said they're worried about the next president signing a national abortion ban.[1]
- This follows other polls in recent days, including a Quinnipiac poll of likely voters putting Harris ahead 49%-47% and a Suffolk/USA Today poll showing her ahead 48%-43%. An Aug. 15 Fox News poll, however, placed Trump ahead 50%-49%.[3]
- While the Reuters/Ipsos poll placed Trump in the lead in swing states, a Cook Political Report survey found Harris ahead in five of those states, tied with him in Georgia, and losing to him by 3% in Nevada.[3]
Sources: [1]Reuters, [2]The Hill and [3]Forbes.
Narratives
- Democratic narrative, as provided by New York Times. Kamala Harris' poll numbers have skyrocketed at the perfect time. Not only is the election just around the corner but her prime-time debate with Trump is scheduled for Sept. 10, giving her an opportunity to speak to even more voters. Harris gained popularity after her debate with former Vice President Mike Pence in 2020. Now, she'll do so again against Trump, no matter what Republicans say about her public speaking abilities.
- Republican narrative, as provided by American Conservative. Pre-election polls have always been slanted in favor of Democrats, largely due to the fact that older White women who tend to answer polls cast Democratic votes. However, when older White women and men vote on election day, Trump has crushed the Democrats, which is why his 2016 victory was so 'surprising' in light of polling data. Harris' marginal lead in the polls means nothing.