Netanyahu: Israel Will Enter Rafah With or Without Hostage Deal

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Facts

  • Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared on Tuesday that Israel will launch an operation into Rafah even if a hostage deal and cease-fire are agreed upon, saying that 'the idea that we will stop the war before achieving all its objectives is out of the question.'1
  • Netanyahu's statement immediately followed a meeting with groups representing families of some slain soldiers and some of the families of hostages. The statement said that the groups asked the Prime Minister to 'continue the war and resist international pressure to bring it to a conclusion.'2
  • Israel's stated plans to enter Rafah have generated significant international push-back, with countries, including the US, advising Israel not to enter the town in which over 1M displaced Palestinians have taken refuge. Israel has said that it will evacuate civilians before an offensive but has not publicly released a comprehensive plan.3
  • US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Israel on Tuesday to meet top officials in his seventh trip to the country since the war began. Blinken previously traveled to Jordan and Saudi Arabia to discuss regional issues and the war in Gaza.4
  • Meanwhile, International Criminal Court (ICC) prosecutors reportedly gathered testimony from staff at al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City and Nasser Hospital in Khan Younis. The ICC has said it is investigating both sides, including Hamas' Oct. 7 attack, which killed more than 1.1K people, and Israel's campaign in Gaza, which has killed more than 34K people.5
  • The International Court of Justice, which is separate from the ICC and is investigating the question of genocide in Gaza, rejected on Tuesday Nicaragua's legal effort to force Germany to halt military and other aid to Israel. The court did, however, decline to throw the case out.6

Sources: 1Reuters, 2The Times of Israel (a), 3The Hill, 4The Times of Israel (b), 5Al Jazeera and 6Associated Press.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by NBC. Israel must be able to defend itself from terrorist attacks from Gaza or elsewhere, and the US is committed to preventing malicious actors from threatening Israel's legitimate concerns. However, the Biden administration is losing its patience with Netanyahu's intransigence. The humanitarian situation in Gaza is rapidly getting out of hand, and the situation must be remedied. An Israeli offensive in Rafah would only make the situation worse.
  • Pro-Israel narrative, as provided by Jerusalem Post. In these critical times, Israel's military is diligently preparing for the possibility of an offensive into Rafah to dismantle Hamas' remaining battalions. Israel has fought a noble fight against Hamas' terror, and it seems imperative that Israel enter Rafah and finish this once and for all. However, given the complexities of the situation, Israel will calculate its next moves carefully.
  • Pro-Palestine narrative, as provided by Middle East Eye. Regardless of whether Israel is allowed to enter Rafah or not, the US is responsible for the atrocities Israel has inflicted upon the Palestinians of Gaza. The Biden admin., worried about domestic political pressures, wants to make it seem as if it never supported this war when from the very beginning Israel has been dependent on the US in its campaign to destroy Gaza and starve its people.

Predictions