2 Navy SEALs Missing During Iranian Weapons Mission

Facts

• As of Tuesday, two US Navy SEALs who went overboard off the coast of Somalia on Thursday while conducting a mission to intercept an Iranian vessel suspected of carrying weapons to Yemen-based Houthis are still missing. Other members of the team reportedly went on to find 'Iranian-made' missile parts on the vessel.¹
• The SEALs were conducting the mission at night, during which one of them fell into the waters of the Arabian Sea while trying to climb aboard the small Iranian boat, called a dhow. Another SEAL then jumped into the water to rescue him, as is protocol, with the rest completing the mission by detaining the 14-member crew of the dhow and then sinking it after it was deemed unsafe.²
• Head of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, said the search for the two SEALs is ongoing. According to the Pentagon, the man who fell either slipped off the boarding ladder or was swept off by a high wave.³
• This comes as Yemen's Houthis have recently ramped up attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea, with a US-led coalition launching an international mission — known as Operation Prosperity Guardian — to counter these assaults.⁴
• While US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said the mission wasn't part of Operation Prosperity Guardian, CENTCOM on Tuesday stated that it believes the weapons that were seized were going to be used by the Houthis to attack commercial ships.⁵
• Military experts presume that the two Navy SEALS have likely died, but some speculate that their world-class training may help them survive at sea.⁶

Sources: ¹NBC, ²The Wall Street Journal, ³The New York Times, ⁴FOX News, ⁵Business Insider (a) and ⁶Business Insider (b).

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by CNN. The US is straddling a thin line between protecting its economic interests and Israel on one side and not provoking a regional war with Iran on the other. While Iran likely doesn't want to go to war with the West, it is certainly benefiting from the recent galvanization of its proxies, Hezbollah and the Houthis. If Iran allows them to push too far, however, it will lead to the US completely annihilating both groups in a wider conflict. The US must stick to protecting assets at sea while being prepared to ramp up its tactics if need be.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by The New Arab. All of this is a result of Israel's war on Gaza since Oct. 7. The Houthis and other Iran-allied groups have taken up arms in defense of the Palestinians, and their targets include anyone currently aiding Israel's bombardment, namely the US and UK. No country, including those in the Middle East, wants to see the Red Sea trading route jeopardized — so if the West wants to free up what accounts for 12% of global shipping, it's the West that needs to call an end to Israel's attacks on Gaza.

Predictions