NATO to Discuss €100B Weapons Fund for Ukraine

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Facts

  • With debate continuing to swirl about permitting Ukraine to use Western weapons to strike inside Russian territory, NATO foreign ministers will also discuss the creation of a €100B ($108B) weapons fund for Ukraine as they meet in the Czech Republic on Thursday.1
  • The package, which seeks to raise the funds over five years, was first floated by NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg last month. If approved, it would also shift control of the US-led weapons support group from Washington to NATO — reportedly an effort to shield against the 'winds of political change,' and the possible consequences of a second Donald Trump presidency.2
  • However, given that the US is the most dominant power in NATO and provides most of Ukraine's weaponry, diplomats disagreed about the effectiveness of such a proposal.3
  • Some countries, including Germany, also expressed resistance to bringing weapons coordination under the NATO umbrella — arguing this could suggest NATO was in direct conflict with the Russian Federation. NATO members will seek to iron out some of these differences in the two-day summit.3
  • Meanwhile, according to US sources who spoke with Britain's Telegraph newspaper this week, officials from the US and Germany have urged Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy not to press for the 'impossible' at upcoming NATO meetings — that being a clear timeframe of when the country can join the military alliance.4
  • Seemingly confirming the Telegraph report, Julianne Smith, the US ambassador to NATO, told a press conference on Wednesday that Ukraine's invitation to NATO is 'unlikely' this summer, but that it would be offered a 'package of support that will help us build the bridge to membership,' she said.5

Sources: 1RTE.ie, 2Ft, 3Reuters, 4Kyiv Post and 5Ukrainska Pravda.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Reuters. With there being differences of opinion in NATO countries about how to best support Ukraine over the next few years, the main goal of this two-day summit in the Czech Republic is to get allies to iron out those differences. This will help the allies be on the same page when it comes time for the leaders' summit scheduled for July in Lithuania.
  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Counterfire. Spiraling out of control, NATO countries continue to cross their self-stated red lines and continue to escalate the conflict by getting more and more entrenched in Ukraine. Why are Western leaders so intent on sparking a global conflict that will almost certainly lead to catastrophe?

Predictions