NATO Summit Underway in Washington, DC

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Facts

• 38 world leaders arrived in Washington, DC, on Monday for the 75th NATO summit. Primary topics of focus will include supporting Ukraine against Russia, US Pres. Joe Biden's health, and the future of the alliance should former US Pres. Donald Trump be re-elected.¹
• Besides NATO members, the heads of Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea will also be in attendance. Diplomats have reportedly stated that they'll be keeping an eye on Pres. Biden's behavior but noted that they would not discuss the matter publicly.²
• On the Ukraine war, Biden called ahead of the summit for continued support for Ukraine and improving its air defenses. This comes after Western leaders condemned Tuesday a deadly airstrike on a Ukrainian children's hospital.³
• Adding Ukraine to the military alliance will also be discussed. While US national security spokesman John Kirby has expressed a desire to welcome Ukraine, Slovak Pres. Peter Pellegrini said Tuesday that Kyiv should not be given a 'free pass.'⁴
• Defense expenditures are also on the agenda. The US wants each member country to spend at least 2% of its GDP on defense by 2024. Twenty-three members are currently on track, up from 9 in 2021, according to US officials.⁵
• NATO currently has 500K troops on high alert for any potential attacks. It's also doubled its number of combat units along its eastern border with Ukraine and Russia.⁶

Sources: ¹New York Times, ²Associated Press (a), ³Guardian, ⁴TASS, ⁵Al Jazeera and ⁶Associated Press (b).

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Reuters. NATO will become stronger and more unified than ever following the 75th anniversary meeting. The 32 member nations' leaders, along with their key allies and Ukraine, will strive to meet the alliance's collective security needs. Not only will it create a broader alliance to reduce the risk of conflict with rivals, but the US will be a safer place with a stronger global economic position. NATO will continue its decades-long history of peace through strength.
• Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Moscow will follow this summit closely because NATO considers Russia an enemy and aims to inflict a strategic battlefield defeat against the Kremlin on the battlefield. Given the coalition has been actively participating in the Ukraine conflict and fighting for Ukraine, Russia will closely monitor any statements or decisions that emerge from the alliance's summit.

Predictions