NATO Divided on Zelenskyy's Call for Ukrainian Membership

Facts

• Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy reissued calls for his country's membership of the NATO military alliance on Thursday, telling leaders at a European summit in Moldova: "Our future is in the European Union. Ukraine is also ready to be part of NATO. We are waiting for NATO to be ready to accept Ukraine."¹
• NATO agreed in 2008 that Ukraine would eventually join the alliance, but no concrete steps have been taken since to make that a reality. At this week's summit, countries including Lithuania and Estonia were among the most vocal in supporting Ukraine's latest call for progress to be made.²
• Gabrielius Landsbergis, the Lithuanian foreign minister, said that it was "high time" officials find a "concrete" solution to help Ukraine integrate with NATO, as well as determine a firmer timeline for when the nation will "become a member of the alliance." His Estonian counterpart Margus Tsahkna added: "Ukraine needs to get a clear path, and the next steps, on how to enter NATO."²
• British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak was also among those who supported moving forward with Ukraine's membership, stating that he agreed with NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg's assessment that Ukraine's "rightful place" is in NATO.³
• Speaking at a NATO event in Norway earlier in the day, Stoltenberg said "[a]ll allies" were in agreement "that Ukraine will become a member of the alliance," adding that it was for those allies, along with Ukraine, "to decide when Ukraine becomes a member."⁴
• In spite of Stoltenberg's attempt to present a unified front, Germany and Luxembourg aired reservations about Ukraine's entry, while Hungary ruled it out at this stage. German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said: "NATO's open door policy remains in place, but at the same time it is clear that we cannot talk about accepting new members [who are] in the midst of a war."²

Sources: ¹UKRINFORM, ²US News & World Report, ³CNBC (a), and ⁴CNBC (b).

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Foreign Affairs. Ukraine has heard many positive statements about its entry into NATO over the years, but they are yet to be backed up by actions. Now is the time to make that aspiration a reality, particularly as Ukraine has demonstrated it is so committed to defending Europe from Moscow. Fears of an escalation are misguided.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by The Libertarian Institute. NATO and its allies are continuing to violate every red line set down by Moscow. If the current course of action continues, NATO risks prompting a large-scale war with Russia. Escalation must be desperately avoided, meaning any potential enlargement of NATO must be shelved.

Predictions