National Polls: Trump Leads DeSantis by Double Digits

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Facts

  • Former Pres. Donald Trump leads Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by 14 points (44%-30%) in the latest national Reuters/Ipsos poll related to the 2024 presidential election. Trump announced plans to run more than four months ago, while DeSantis has not officially announced his intentions.1
  • Moreover, the most recent Harris Poll from the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard on Monday showed Trump holding an even wider lead of 26 points (50%-24%).2
  • However, recent surveys conducted by Public Opinion Strategies show DeSantis ahead of Trump 45%-37% in Iowa and tied with the former president (each with 39%) in New Hampshire.3
  • Mark Penn, co-director of the Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll, said despite Trump’s current large lead, it will be difficult to assess DeSantis' strength until he announces his run.4
  • DeSantis is currently on a book tour in key campaign states. It has been widely speculated he’ll announce his run after the Florida state legislature finishes its session in May.5
  • In the CAPS/Harris poll, former Vice President Mike Pence, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, and Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina all poll at less than 10%.6

Sources: 1FOX News, 2Guardian, 3New York Post, 4The Hill, 5Washington Examiner, and 6Daily Caller.

Narratives

  • Pro-Trump narrative, as provided by The Last Refuge. These polls show why DeSantis will be making the biggest political mistake of his career by challenging Trump, who leads DeSantis in all the major categories — even the ones the mainstream media said wouldn’t be attracted to the former president. Trump is the present and future of the Republican Party despite how much the establishment hates him.
  • Republican narrative, as provided by FOX News. If DeSantis wins Iowa and contends tightly in New Hampshire, there would be a momentum shift that would permit voters to move away from Trump, who hasn’t changed since his 2020 defeat to Pres. Biden. DeSantis is strong in those states, so Trump shouldn’t count on an easy race. The entire GOP would likely enjoy a hard-fought close race between these two.
  • Democratic narrative, as provided by Daily Kos. It looks like Republicans are stuck with Trump, despite his 2020 election loss and his inspiring the violence of Jan. 6, 2021, at the US Capitol. DeSantis was supposed to be the heir apparent, but instead, he can’t break through Trump’s hold on the grassroots of the party. This is 2016 all over again. Despite the success DeSantis has had in pushing Orbanist-like policies in Florida, the Democrats will likely still face Trump's GOP come 2024.
  • Narrative D, as provided by CNN. Alarmingly, the real winner of the Republican primary looks to be Vladimir Putin. Both Trump and DeSantis have made it clear that if they become president, Ukraine's support from the US would be in danger. This domestic debate could have global consequences, and if the war is still going on in 2024, Ukraine's fate could effectively be decided on the ballot next year.

Predictions