Nagorno-Karabakh Republic Announces Its Dissolution

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Facts

• According to a decree signed by Nagorno-Karabakh Pres. Samvel Shakhramanyan on Thursday, the region's state institutions will be dismantled by the end of the year and the self-declared republic will cease to exist as of Jan. 1, 2024.¹
• Since Azerbaijan's 24-hour offensive last week that led to local forces surrendering, around 70.5K people — over half the region's population — have reportedly crossed into Armenia via the Lachin corridor.²
• Azerbaijan has claimed that it's prepared to respect ethnic Armenian's rights as it reabsorbs the region, but Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has repeatedly warned of the risk of ethnic cleansing of Armenians in the enclave.³
• Meanwhile, Azerbaijan detained Ruben Vardanyan — a wealthy businessman who made his fortune in investment banking in Russia and served as the state minister of the Nagorno-Karabakh republic — as he tried to flee the region on Wednesday.⁴
• After the fall of the Soviet Union, two former Soviet republics, Armenia and Azerbaijan, went to war in the early 1990s, with Armenia capturing areas in and around Nagorno-Karabakh.⁵
• In 2020, a second war broke out, with Azerbaijan recapturing the territory and Russia playing a key role in negotiating a ceasefire. Tensions increased last December after Azerbaijan imposed a partial blockade of the Lachin Corridor — the only road that links Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia.⁶

Sources: ¹Al Jazeera, ²Reuters, ³CNN, ⁴Guardian (a), ⁵BBC News and ⁶Guardian (b).

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by The armenian weekly. Hundreds of years of Armenian history will soon be erased as Azerbaijan seeks to ethnically cleanse Nagorno-Karabakh, known as Artsakh to its indigenous Armenian population. The world, yet again, is watching in silence as long-dispossessed people are pushed out of their homeland.
• Narrative B, as provided by Aze.media. Azerbaijan has finally triumphed and reclaimed its sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh. This will dislodge Armenia's military presence in the region and ensure the return of refugees displaced by Armenia in the first war — Azerbaijan only seeks to live in harmony with its neighbors.

Predictions