Myanmar Opposition Claims Drone Attacks on Capital

Facts

• Myanmar's anti-junta National Unity Government (NUG) has claimed to have launched simultaneous drone attacks against military targets in the capital, Nay Pyi Taw.¹
• A group allegedly involved in the incident stated that 28 improvised one-way drones were used on Thursday morning to attack the military headquarters, a major airbase next to the international airport, and the residence of junta leader Min Aung Hlaing.²
• However, most details of the incident remain murky and couldn't be independently verified, including whether there were any casualties or damage from the attack.³
• Though BBC Burmese and an independent local news outlet said that Nay Pyi Taw International Airport was shut down for a while after the incident, people who live nearby told AP they were unaware of any attack.³
• According to state media, air defense forces thwarted the operations, shooting the fixed-wing drones down in advance and destroying at least two in the air. As of Friday, search operations had seized 13 others on the ground.⁴
• Myanmar has been in a civil war since the military overthrew Aung San Suu Kyi's elected civilian government in 2021, but the heavily guarded Nay Pyi Taw has been shielded from much of the fighting.⁵

Sources: ¹Guardian, ²The Irrawaddy, ³Associated Press, ⁴Myanmar International TV and ⁵BBC News.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Washington Post. After three years in power, Myanmar's military junta is finally losing its grip on power, as pro-democracy fighters and ethnic rebel groups have joined forces to defeat the regime. As mismanaging the junta's collapse could create total and bloody chaos, the Biden admin and other international actors must step in to prepare the exiled National Unity Government.
• Narrative B, as provided by South China Morning Post. Beside it being premature to talk about a potential military junta collapse in Myanmar due to the absence of central command in the opposition, such a development would be risky, as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations would likely not be able to advance a contingency plan after failing to implement its Five-Point Consensus. A negotiated solution is the only way out of this crisis.

Predictions