Myanmar Junta Recaptures Key Trade Hub on Thai Border

Facts

• Myanmar junta soldiers have regained control of the key trading hub of Myawaddy, on the border with Thailand, a spokesman for the rebel ethnic Karen National Union (KNU) said Wednesday.¹
• This comes a day after a junta spokesperson said that some of its troops were back in Myawaddy, and had successfully returned to a previously vacated military base.²
• Images and videos circulated on social media show soldiers raising Myanmar's national flag at the Infantry Battalion 275 base, which the KNU and its allies captured two weeks ago.³
• According to the KNU, a temporary withdrawal from Myawaddy was made after a local militia allegedly assisted the counteroffensive by the junta.⁴
• Known as Border Guard Force until March, and closely tied to the junta, the Karen National Army had been in control of Myawaddy to prevent regime airstrikes. Over 1K military troops have been deployed to the border town.⁵
• On the other side of the border, Thailand warned both the junta and rebel groups not to spill the conflict over its soil. This past weekend, mounting violence has reportedly sent thousands across the Thai border to take refuge.⁶

Sources: ¹New York Times, ²Thaipbsworld, ³Associated Press, ⁴Reuters, ⁵The Irrawaddy and ⁶Benar News.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Council on Foreign Relations. After three years in power, Myanmar's military junta is finally losing its grip on power after pro-democracy fighters and ethnic rebel groups have joined forces to defeat the regime — temporarily recapturing Myawaddy doesn't reverse that trend. As mismanaging the junta's collapse could create total and bloody chaos, the Biden administration and other international actors must step in to prepare the exiled National Unity Government.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by South China Morning Post. This latest development proves how premature it is to talk about a potential military junta collapse in Myanmar. Even if that were the case, the absence of a central command in the opposition would make it risky, as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations would likely be unable to advance a contingency plan after failing to implement its Five-Point Consensus. A negotiated solution is the only way out of this crisis.

Predictions