Moscow Denies Reports of Ukrainian Bakhmut Breakthrough

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Facts

  • Russia's defense ministry has denied that Ukraine made any front-line breakthroughs in the "engagement line" [near Bakhmut] — in the Donetsk region.1
  • Earlier in the week, Oleksandr Syrskyi, head of Ukraine's ground forces, said his troops had advanced as much as 1.2 miles (2 km) in some areas of the front line. "Thanks to our well-thought-out defense on the Bakhmut front, we are getting results from the efficient actions of our units," he said.2
  • The report was seemingly confirmed on Thursday when Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Russian mercenary group Wagner PMC, again criticized Russia's military leadership, stating on Telegram that Ukrainian forces had "successfully entered some of our flanks in the Bakhmut direction."3
  • Russia's defense ministry said on Thursday, "The statements circulating on some Telegram channels and alleging breaches of defense in various sections of the engagement line are not true." The ministry suggested that the situation is "generally under control" per official Russian state media.1
  • Meanwhile, the Institute for the Study of War, a US military think tank that tracks battlefield positions in the war, concluded in its latest assessment that: "Ukrainian forces likely broke through some Russian lines in localized counterattacks near Bakhmut" — citing two locations where geolocated footage appeared to confirm the presence of Ukrainian troops in territory recently held by Russia.4
  • Ukraine's attacks in Bakhmut also prompted Wagner head Prigozhin to accuse Ukrainian Pres. Volodymyr Zelenskyy of lying when he said Ukraine needed "a bit more time" before launching its awaited counterattack. However, it's still unclear whether Ukraine's reported attacks in Bakhmut were part of a large counteroffensive thrust or part of a more localized positional struggle.5

Sources: 1TASS, 2Yahoo News, 3New York Post, 4Understandingwar, and 5CNN.

Narratives

  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by Al Jazeera. Drawing context from the statements of Prigozhin and the Russian defense ministry's responses — as well as from geolocated footage that showed a recent reversal of positions in some areas — Ukraine likely did regain territory that was recently held by Moscow.
  • Pro-Russia narrative, as provided by TASS. Reports of Ukrainian advances are false. Russian troops have continued to repel all Ukrainian attacks, while offensive operations are still ongoing in several regions. Moscow continues to hold the majority of Bakhmut, or Artyomovsk in Russian.

Predictions