Morning Consult Poll: Harris Leads Trump 51%-45%

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Facts

  • US Vice Pres. Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, leads her Republican counterpart, former Pres. Donald Trump, 51%-45% in the latest Morning Consult survey of likely voters, which was released Tuesday.[1]
  • Harris' six-point lead and her popularity among likely voters are her best showings since she entered the race, replacing Pres. Joe Biden in July. Her lead has increased three points since she debated Trump on Sept. 10.[2]
  • Previously, 61% of likely voters, including 20% of Republicans, said Harris performed best during the debate, while 33% said Trump won it.[1]
  • Harris also leads independent voters, 47%-41%, over Trump. Her favorability is at 53% compared to 44% for Trump.[1][3]
  • This comes after an ABC News/Ipsos poll taken days after the debate showed Harris ahead 52%-46% among likely voters, and a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted around the same time showed Harris with a 47%-42% lead among registered voters.[2]

Sources: [1]Morning Consult Pro, [2]Forbes and [3]Newsweek.

Narratives

  • Democratic narrative, as provided by Salon. Most Americans disagree with Trump when he says he won the debate, and now we know most disagree with the idea of voting for him in November. This poll follows the trend of others showing that Harris has the lead or is neck-in-neck. Harris' momentum is real.
  • Republican narrative, as provided by FOX News. There's no post-debate momentum. The data shows few people were moved by the debate regardless of who would-be voters believed won. Polling shows razor-thin margins in the seven battleground states that will determine the winner, and that's what matters.

Predictions