Morgan Stanley: US May Avoid Recession, But Not Europe

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Facts

  • In a report released Sunday, Morgan Stanley predicted that there will be a split in GDP growth between the world's 10 developed countries (G10), with the UK and the Eurozone facing a recession in 2023 and the US narrowly avoiding one.
  • The average G10 growth next year is expected to be 0.3%, with the US seeing a 0.5% increase. China will reportedly outpace the average emerging markets prediction — with 3.7% growth in 2023 — with a GDP increase of 5%.
  • The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is still expected to retain its high-interest rates while inflation remains high, with the report projecting that job growth "slows meaningfully" and unemployment continues to rise.
  • The report also says global inflation will peak in the current quarter with "disinflation driving the narrative next year," though tightening rate hikes throughout 2023 and into 2024, including in the US, will result "in two very weak years."
  • Core inflation in the US is set to fall to 2.9% by the end of 2023, and headline inflation — excluding food and fuel — to drop to 1.9%. US stocks, however, are expected to lag behind Japan and Asian emerging markets.

Sources: Malay Mail, Teletrader, Reuters, and Edgemarkets.

Narratives

  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by Cnet. At this point, the debate over whether the US is officially in a recession doesn't matter. Prices for everyday goods are going up, unemployment is expected to rise above 4% — not including people who've stopped looking for a job — and loan interest rates are still devastatingly high. Average workers are still feeling crushed by this economy and no financial analyst's report can make them feel better. This administration must do more to defeat inflation.
  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by CNN. The Fed has been tackling inflation, and it has been working. Morgan Stanley isn’t the first to say there’s a lesser chance of a US recession than there was earlier this year, as Goldman Sachs has reduced the probability of a recession to 35%. Economic growth has already occurred and gross domestic product growth looks headed for about 1%.