More Details of US-Russia Diplomacy Talks Emerge

Facts

• Further details of diplomatic talks between the US and Russia emerged this week after a former US official involved in the meetings spoke to the Moscow Times — an independent Russian outlet now based in Armenia to avoid possible persecution at home.¹
• The existence of these back-channel discussions aimed at ending the war in Ukraine was first reported by NBC News earlier in the month, revealing that former US national security officials have been holding talks with prominent Russians believed to be close to the Kremlin. This process is known as "track two diplomacy" in which discussions don't involve current government officials.²
• On at least one occasion, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov took part in the discussions. This is referred to as "track 1.5 diplomacy," meaning that current officials are involved on one end of the talks. On the US side, participants have included Richard Haass, Charles Kupchan, Thomas Graham, and Mary Beth Long, among others. All are former US government officials.²
• According to the latest Moscow Times report citing one of the US participants, the former official said: "I have been visiting Moscow at least every three months...We were given some access to the Kremlin’s thinking, though not as much as we would have liked."¹
• After Russian participants reportedly expressed that a humiliating defeat is not acceptable to the Kremlin, the US official said: "It was here that we made clear that the US was prepared to work constructively with Russian national security concerns."¹
• The official further stated: "In fact, we emphasized that the US needs, and will continue to need, a strong enough Russia to create stability along its periphery. The US wants a Russia with strategic autonomy in order for the US to advance diplomatic opportunities in Central Asia. We in the US have to recognize that total victory in Europe could harm our interests in other areas of the world. Russian power is not necessarily a bad thing."¹
• Despite the conciliatory remarks, the official said that talks had reached an impasse, suggesting that Russian Pres. Putin "is the major block to all progress." The official added that, for this reason, Washington "should begin reaching out to the anti-war Russian elite and begin making progress with them." If there was support for another leader, he said, "ousting Putin would not be impossible."¹

Sources: ¹The Moscow Times and ²NBC.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Asia Times. The evidence suggests that, at every possible turn, the West has hampered — rather than fostered — a possible peace deal between Russia and Ukraine. Had talks been taken seriously since 2014, this whole war could've been avoided. Now with every day that passes, more destruction of Ukraine is brought. This is the time to bring the conflict to a close.
• Narrative B, as provided by Foreign Policy. It's often argued that all wars end in negotiations so peace talks in this instance will inevitably have to be sought. Not only is this wrong, but premature negotiations can do more harm than good. If Russian and Ukrainian interests do not overlap, we could be setting the stage for another war.

Predictions