Moderna: COVID Vaccine Sales Predicted to Reach $8B in 2023

Facts

• Pharmaceutical giant Moderna has posted higher-than-expected revenue and lower losses as the company improves its outlook for COVID vaccine sales for 2023.¹
• Shares saw an initial uptick Thursday before settling up around 1% as Moderna expects vaccine sales to be between $6B-$8B, up from their prior forecast of $5B. The demand for COVID shots in the US alone is expected to be between 50M and 100M doses for the fall.²
• Second-quarter revenue dropped to $344M, down from the $4.75B Moderna recorded in Q2 last year. Sales of its COVID shot also declined 94%, leaving a net quarterly loss of $1.38B, compared to the $2.2B profit the company turned in the same period last year.³
• This loss still beat earnings estimates as the company bets big on its targeted booster for the XBB.1.5. variant of COVID boosting revenue, with countries making advanced purchase agreements in anticipation of the fall.⁴
• Moderna and Pfizer will compete for vaccine sales during a potential uptick in cases in the fall. Moderna's fortunes were boosted by finalized contracts with Japan and US healthcare companies, as well as a deal to produce mRNA vaccines in China.⁵
• The mRNA vaccine is Moderna's only FDA-approved product, though it hopes to have an RSV vaccine approved and released in 2024.⁶

Sources: ¹Barrons, ²Reuters, ³CNBC, ⁴Yahoo Finance, ⁵Bloomberg, and ⁶MarketWatch.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by NPR Online News. COVID is still a very real threat, with the market moves showing that Moderna is preparing for a COVID onslaught this fall, and we should heed the wisdom of the market. Moderna and Pfizer are preparing for such with targeted boosters that will help minimize the impact this time around.
• Narrative B, as provided by CNN. Moderna has left governments around the world holding the bag, as the company has hidden data that showed that boosters weren't anymore effective than the original shots. Governments have spent billions on misleadingly advertised boosters, with the company now touting their new shot in a bid to boost flagging revenues.