Moderate Democratic Sen. Manchin Won’t Run for Reelection

Facts

• West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin, 76, on Thursday announced he will not seek reelection in 2024.¹
• In a statement, Manchin said that instead of running to remain in the Senate, he would be “traveling the country and speaking out to see if there is an interest in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together.”²
• Manchin, a moderate Democrat, is part of a caucus that holds a 51-49 margin in the Senate. His departure presents Democrats with the challenge of retaining his seat in a conservative state.³
• Manchin, a Senator since 2010, has differed with the Biden administration on some policies and has often used the Democrats’ thin majority to secure concessions. He was instrumental in helping to pass the president’s signature Inflation Reduction Act.⁴
• Manchin’s decision instantly sparked rumors he may consider a third-party run for president. He has appeared at events for the No Labels group, which is considering running a “unity” presidential ticket.⁵
• Republican Gov. Jim Justice and Rep. Alex Mooney will compete for the GOP nomination in the state former Pres. Donald Trump won by nearly 40 points in 2020.⁶

Sources: ¹Associated Press, ²Reuters, ³CNN, ⁴ABC News, ⁵NPR Online News and ⁶The Wall Street Journal.

Narratives

• Republican narrative, as provided by Daily Caller. Manchin's latest announcement has crushed Democrats' chances of retaining their Senate majority in 2024. There are so many vulnerable Democrats in swing states that the math was already daunting for them to remain in control. Now Manchin is basically handing his seat to Republicans, making the odds of a Democratic majority even smaller.
• Democratic narrative, as provided by The Hill. While Manchin's decision may cost Democrats a seat, it won't necessarily cost them the majority. With current polls placing incumbent Democrats ahead in several key states — including Montana, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania — it would be premature to concede defeat. And, while rumors spread of a potential presidential run, they are just that: rumors.

Predictions