Milei and Massa Head for Argentina Election Runoff

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Facts

  • Argentina will hold a presidential runoff between the left-wing Peronist coalition candidate Sergio Massa, the incumbent economy minister, and the libertarian outsider Javier Milei on Nov. 19, after no candidate reached the required polling threshold in Sunday's election.1
  • With roughly 98% of the ballots counted, Massa won 36% of the vote while Milei, the frontrunner in pre-election opinion polls, secured 30%. To win outright, a candidate would have to win over 45% of the vote, or 40% plus a 10-point lead.2
  • Placed third with nearly 24% of the vote, the conservative former security minister Patricia Bullrich refused to congratulate Massa, claiming that he has been part of the worst government in the country's history. Juan Schiaretti and Myriam Bregman trailed with respective tallies of 6.8% and 2.7%.3
  • Under the government of outgoing Pres. Alberto Fernández, Argentina's annual inflation rate hit 138% in September while foreign currency reserves have fallen sharply to support the peso's fall despite currency and price controls.4
  • The runoff winner will take office in December and will begin a four-year term running the South American country, which is currently facing its most serious financial crisis over the past two decades.5
  • Argentina has seen the lowest turnout since its return to democracy in 1983, with more than a quarter of its electoral roll not exercising their right to vote for President and Vice President. Unlike other regions, the provinces of Buenos Aires, Catamarca and Entre Ríos, as well as the Autonomous City of Buenos Aires, held local elections together with the national vote.6

Sources: 1Buenos Aires Times, 2Reuters, 3BBC News, 4FT, 5CNN and 6MercoPress.

Narratives

  • Left narrative, as provided by The Guardian. Victory within the first round for Massa was an unexpected surprise, and almost certainly a disappointment for the radical libertarian Milei. Having hoped for a similar result to like-minded Bolsonaro in 2018, Milei's hopes for the perfect evening were ruined as a lack of consensus left Argentina in continued economic and social uncertainty. Despite the lead, a victory for Massa is by no means certain, and — despite the current state of the country — Argentina must think twice about allowing the far right to lead a change in direction.
  • Right narrative, as provided by Breitbart. This is certainly a shocking result, as Milei was expected to poll far better than the incumbent economy minister responsible for Argentina's inflation disaster and economic collapse, but the presidential race is far from being over. Now that a runoff election between Milei and Massa has been triggered, the center-right camp must overcome differences that set the tone of their campaigns to seize the opportunity to crush the Kirchnerismo criminal organization.

Predictions