Michigan Primaries: Trump, Biden Win Big

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Facts

  • On Tuesday, Pres. Joe Biden won the Michigan Democratic presidential primary and former Pres. Donald Trump prevailed in that state's Republican primary — pushing the US closer to a rematch of the 2020 presidential election.1
  • With 95% of the vote counted, Biden had secured 81% of the vote, while Trump had earned 68% of the GOP vote.1
  • Trump defeated his last remaining challenger, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who — days after losing to Trump in the primary in her home state — got 27% of the vote in Michigan.1
  • Biden's main challenge came from votes for 'uncommitted,' which were the result of an effort to protest US policy towards Gaza and civilian casualties. With 95% of the vote counted, 'uncommitted' had grabbed more than 100K votes (13%).2
  • Michigan was the last primary before the upcoming Super Tuesday primaries. Prior to Michigan, Biden defeated lesser-known candidates in South Carolina and New Hampshire, the latter of which he won on write-in votes. Trump is now undefeated through five major Republican contests.3
  • Michigan projects to again be a crucial state in the 2024 election. Trump won it by nearly 11K votes in 2016, before Biden recaptured it for Democrats by around 150K votes in 2020.4

Sources: 1ABC News, 2USA Today, 3Associated Press and 4CNN.

Narratives

  • Republican narrative, as provided by American Conservative. A victory in the pivotal state of Michigan is well within reach for Republicans, with Trump, the inevitable GOP nominee, showing his dominance in the state. On the other hand, Biden — who squeaked by in the state in 2020 — is wobbling because of the large chunk of Muslim and Arab voters who are horrified with his policies. Biden is beatable in Michigan, and this could prove to be a vulnerability in other states as well.
  • Democratic narrative, as provided by NBC. Biden is on firm footing. Michigan voters knew the president was going to run away with it, so a portion of the electorate chose to use their votes to have their voices heard. Looking forward to the general election, the president has plenty of time to win over those who protested. And once they realize the alternative is Trump, they'll come out in support of Biden and the Democratic Party will unite en masse to face down Trump's threat to democracy.

Predictions