Mexico's Senate to Vote on Judicial Reform

Facts

• Mexican senators are set to begin debating Pres. Andrés Manuel López Obrador's judicial reform on Tuesday, followed by a final full Senate vote scheduled to take place no later than the next day.^[1][2]
• This comes as the reform package passed a Senate commission late on Sunday, with 25 in favor and 12 against. Last week, the lower house of Mexico's Congress, the Chamber of Deputies, approved the bill 359-135.^[3][4]
• The ruling Morena party is seen as one Senate vote short of the two-thirds majority to pass constitutional changes, prompting rumors that an opposition senator could flip. However, due to two-thirds of the 128-member chamber being 85.33, there's debate over whether to round down to 85 or up to 86.^[5][6]
• If approved, the reform would see all of the roughly 7K federal judges elected by popular vote; reduce the number of Supreme Court judges from 11 to nine and shorten their terms from 15 years to 12; and limit court powers to block government projects or laws.^[7][3][4]
• Critics, including Catholic leaders, have raised concerns over the reform's potential impact on the independence of the judiciary, and the Supreme Court voted to continue its strike through at least Thursday in solidarity with judicial workers protesting outside the Senate.^[8][2]
• This comes after López Obrador halted relations with the US and Canadian embassies amid criticism over the scrapping of some independent regulatory bodies and potential violations of the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement (USMCA).^[9][10]

Sources: ^[1]France 24, ^[2]Courthousenews, ^[3]Reuters, ^[4]XINHUA, ^[5]Bloomberg, ^[6]Mexico News Daily, ^[7]Al Jazeera, ^[8]Associated Press, ^[9]Politico and ^[10]CNN.

Narratives

• Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by The Hill. As Obrador enters his final month in office, his goal is clearly to consolidate his Morena party's power and install a totalitarian regime in Mexico. Instead of promoting independence and democracy, this judicial reform will do the opposite by lowering professional standards and creating further vulnerabilities.
• Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by teleSURenglish. It's urgent that Mexico reforms its judicial system, as most Mexicans have expressed their desire to vote for judges rather than being subject to the dictates of the judiciary elite—one that is largely owned by US corporations. These changes are part of a broader push to bring more equality and social justice to Mexico.

Predictions