Marist Poll: Trump, Harris Virtually Tied in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina

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Facts

  • New Marist College Sun Belt state polls found Vice Pres. Kamala Harris and former Pres. Donald Trump locked in tight races in three key battleground states that, combined, account for 43 Electoral College votes.[1][2]
  • In Arizona, Trump has a one-point lead over Harris among likely voters statewide, 50% to 49%, as the Democrat trails by two points among Latinos — a demographic that Pres. Joe Biden carried by 24 points in 2020.[3]
  • The Republican enjoys the same 50-49 advantage in Georgia, the state at the center of the 2020 election controversies, with confidence in the integrity of the elections in the state at 72%.[4]
  • Meanwhile, Harris and Trump are tied in North Carolina at 49% among likely voters statewide — and at 48% among independents who are likely to vote, a group that favored Biden four years ago.[5]
  • This comes as a New York Times/Siena poll released earlier this week found Trump leading Harris in all three states — 50% to 45% in Arizona and 49% to 45% in both Georgia and North Carolina.[6][7]
  • According to RealClear's polling average for top battlegrounds, as of Thursday, Trump would secure these three states but lose Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — a scenario in which Harris would win the White House.[8][9]

Sources: [1]FOX News, [2]The Hill, [3]Home of the Marist Poll (a), [4]Home of the Marist Poll (b), [5]Home of the Marist Poll (c), [6]Time, [7]New York Post, [8]Realclearpolling and [9]RealClearPolling.

Narratives

  • Democratic narrative, as provided by New York Times. This set of polls is big for Kamala Harris, who may flip North Carolina blue for the first time since Obama won there in 2008. She is also showing promise in Georgia — the battleground state where Trump has his best results.
  • Republican narrative, as provided by Washington Examiner. Polls underestimated support for Trump both in 2016 and 2020, so the latest results in key Sun Belt battleground states are very positive for the Republican ticket. Compared to previous cycles, this is Trump's best chance to win by a landslide — and even to secure the popular vote.

Predictions