Manchin Prompts Speculation of Presidential Bid

Facts

• Set to speak Monday at an event in New Hampshire hosted by the bipartisan organization "No Labels," Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) has sparked speculation that he may either run on or support a third-party ticket for the 2024 presidential election.¹
• Manchin will appear alongside former Utah Gov. and GOP presidential candidate Jon Huntsman at St. Anselm College at the event. If he runs on a third-party ticket, he could potentially take votes away from Democrats in the presidential race and give Republicans another seat in the narrowly Democrat-led Senate.²
• According to polls, a third-party run could create reelection problems for Pres. Biden, especially if former Pres. Donald Trump is his opponent. According to one survey of swing states conducted by bipartisan operatives, Biden currently leads Trump 52% to 48%.³
• Though Manchin hasn't confirmed or ruled out either a presidential bid or Senate re-election campaign, he has been fundraising for a potential Senate campaign — with donors reportedly including political action committees for Fox Corp., Comcast/NBCU, and Cox Enterprises.⁴
• The 75-year-old Manchin, a powerful conservative senator in the Democratic party, would likely face a strong opponent in Gov. Jim Justice if he chooses to run for reelection. West Virginia has been leaning more Republican in recent years, voting decisively for Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020.¹

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²Guardian, ³The Hill, and ⁴Deadline.

Narratives

• Republican narrative, as provided by Washington Examiner. While he may have given the Democrats a slight Senate majority, the party's political victory provided by Joe Manchin may be wearing off. The Democrat from a deeply red state has shown his disfavor for Biden before, and this time it may be felt at the 2024 presidential and Senate levels. The GOP has been calling for Manchin to switch parties for a reason: he and his constituents are growing more and more conservative and anti-Biden by the day. Manchin could be a nightmare for Biden in 2024.
• Democratic narrative, as provided by ABC News. Since Biden announced his reelection campaign in April, the incumbent Democrat has raised more than $72M through just 38 fundraisers. While past campaigns have raised more in the same time frame, the Biden campaign has rolled out his reelection bid slowly and will only pick up the pace. Furthermore, despite questions surrounding his age, Biden blows every GOP challenger out of the water in the polls. Manchin poses little long-term threat to the Biden campaign.

Predictions