Maldives: Pres. Muizzu's Party Wins Parliamentary Polls

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Facts

• According to preliminary results Monday, Maldivian Pres. Mohamed Muizzu's People's National Congress party has won the country's parliamentary elections — winning 71 of 93 seats.¹
• The main opposition Maldivian Democratic Party, led by former Pres. Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, won 15 seats in Sunday's vote. It held an absolute majority in the previous parliament with 65 seats.²
• With about 73% of eligible voters casting ballots, the Election Commission of the Maldives said voter turnout was lower than the 82% recorded in the 2019 parliamentary elections.³
• Formal ratification of the results is expected to take a week, while the new parliament will likely take office in early May.⁴
• China and India each watched this election closely. Solih is seen as pro-India. Muizzu — who after winning the presidency last year ordered Indian troops stationed on one of Maldives' islets to go home — belongs to the pro-China camp.⁵

Sources: ¹Reuters, ²Al Jazeera, ³BBC News, ⁴Yahoo News and ⁵Associated Press.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by Firstpost. With Muizzu's party securing a supermajority, it's clear voters have strongly endorsed his pro-China stand. Now he has the political muscle to reduce India's long-standing influence on the Maldives, push forward a more balanced foreign policy, and foster closer economic and defense cooperation with global powerhouse China.
• Narrative B, as provided by Frontline. Unfortunately, this vote will accelerate the Maldives' shift away from traditional ally India in favor of China, which has been aggressive on the world stage. Plus, Muizzu's two-thirds majority in parliament could allow him to destroy the country's democratic values. He can amend the constitution, control the judiciary, and compromise national sovereignty by giving China too much influence.

Predictions