Major Hurricane Hilary Tracks Towards Baja Mexico, California

Facts

• Hurricane Hilary, classified as a "major" Category 4 storm, barreled toward Mexico's Baja California Peninsula and the Southwestern US on Friday, bringing heavy rains. Experts say it's expected to hit Southern California — currently projected as a tropical storm this weekend.¹
• Though it's expected to be downgraded to a tropical storm by the time it reaches Southern California, it would be the first-ever tropical storm watch issued for the state [in the modern era of issuing warning messages].²
• Meteorologists predict that the storm could dump more than a year's worth of rain in parts of California. A tropical storm warning was issued in Cabo, Mexico, and a hurricane warning was issued for parts of Baja, California.²
• If the storm makes landfall in California, it will be the first tropical storm to do so in nearly 84 years, since "El Cordonazo" — a tropical storm system that hit Longbeach in 1939, killing 93 people.³
• Hilary sustained winds close to 145 mph (233 km/hr) on Friday and is expected to intensify before it weakens. Heavy rainfall associated with the storm is expected to hit the Southwestern US through Wednesday, peaking on Sunday and Monday.⁴
• Hilary first formed off the coast of Manzanillo, Mexico, Wednesday and shifted west-northwest toward Baja. Flood watches have been issued for Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, including Catalina Island, and a hurricane warning in Mexico's Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Punta Eugenia.⁵

Sources: ¹CBS, ²ABC7 Los Angeles, ³NBC, ⁴PBS NewsHour, and ⁵The New York Times.

Narratives

• Narrative A, as provided by The New York Times. Scientists agree that climate change is making hurricanes worse and increasing the likelihood of dangerous powerful storms. Global warming is also increasing the amount of rain that storms can produce and rapidly intensifying the strength and reach of tropical systems. This trend is real and it is worrying. Governments need to take action against climate change before things get worse.
• Narrative B, as provided by New York Post. Global warming should not be the scapegoat for every extreme weather event. The major reason for an increase in hurricane-related damage is not due to an increase in the number or intensity of hurricanes, but rather because more people live within the paths of these storms. Rather than fear mongering, authorities should focus on reducing vulnerability along coastlines and rehabilitating wetlands.

Predictions