London Mayor Claims Brexit Cost the UK Economy Over $178B

Facts

  • London Mayor Sadiq Khan said on Thursday that Britain's exit from the EU has shrunk the country's economy by 6% so far — an annual cost of £140B ($178B).1
  • Khan quoted data and research by Cambridge Econometrics — tasked with predicting how fast the British economy could have grown if the nation had remained inside the EU — to support his assertion.2
  • According to Cambridge Econometrics' report, the UK has 2M fewer jobs due to Brexit, with 290K positions lost in London. Construction and financial industries bore over 50% of the brunt of this loss.3
  • The report has also predicted that Brexit will decrease the UK's economic growth by 0.4 percentage points annually until 2035, shrink employment levels by 3M, and lead to a one-third reduction in investment.4
  • Khan has also reportedly blamed the country's current cost of living crisis on Brexit, adding that the situation could be alleviated if the UK improves its 'trading arrangements with our European neighbors.'5
  • Meanwhile, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's spokesman, Max Blain, has dismissed the report's findings, stating: 'The UK has grown faster than Italy and Germany since the Brexit referendum in 2016, and faster than Germany since leaving the EU in 2020.'3

Sources: 1Reuters, 2South China Morning Post, 3Luxembourg, 4US News & World Report and 5Bloomberg.

Narratives

  • Establishment-critical narrative, as provided by London City Hall. Brexit was a monumental mistake. The current cost of living crisis in the UK directly results from this awful decision that has tanked the economy and made essentials vastly more expensive. It's time the UK built a closer relationship with the EU so as to turbocharge its economy.
  • Pro-establishment narrative, as provided by South China Morning Post. Cambridge Econometrics' estimates are nothing more than fantasies — even using all available data, it would be impossible accurately speculate on the British economy's health had the country voted to stay in the EU. The impact of the pandemic complicates any possible metrics that could have forecasted events over the past few years.

Predictions