Study: Life Expectancy Gains Slowing

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Facts

  • Data from 10 of the world's longest-lived populations show that life expectancy improvements made in the 20th century have slowed in the last 30 years.[1]
  • The study — published in Nature Aging on Tuesday — observed data between 1990 and 2019 from the US, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, Australia, Sweden, Switzerland, Italy, France, and Spain.[2][3]
  • Those born recently in these regions are far less likely to turn centenarians, with the most optimistic outlook predicting that 15% of females and 5% of males will cross that milestone this century. The average likelihood of this happening for those born in 2019 is set at 5.1% and 1.8%, respectively.[4][1]
  • The average global life expectancy rose from 48 in 1900 to 67 in 1950 and 76 by 2000 — but by 2021, it touched only 77.[5]
  • Lead author S. Jay Olshansky from the University of Illinois emphasizes the importance of maintaining a healthy lifestyle — proper diet, exercise, and avoiding harmful behaviors — to maximize individual longevity potential.[6][7]

Sources: [1]Guardian, [2]Neuroscience News, [3]Nature, [4]CNN, [5]Daily Mail, [6]New Scientist and [7]Business Insider.

Narratives

  • Narrative A, as provided by The Telegraph. Despite concerns about slowing growth in life expectancy, many countries are still on track for significant gains by 2030. Even though some nations may lag behind, the overall trend is positive. Researchers emphasize that we're likely far from hitting any upper limit on human longevity, suggesting that with continued improvements in healthcare, nutrition, and lifestyle, people around the world can look forward to longer, healthier lives in the coming decades.
  • Narrative B, as provided by Time. Aside from the great strides taken in extending human life and recent fears that those gains may be slowing, what ought to worry us more is that the gap between lifespan and healthspan is widening. Many people now spend their later years battling chronic conditions. It may be more valuable to live fewer years in good health than to eke out a longer existence plagued by disease. This shift in perspective challenges us to prioritize not just longevity but the quality of our extended lives.

Predictions